Experts Weigh in on When the Cruise Industry Might Recover

During Travel Weekly’s CruiseWorld virtual event, held this week, top-level cruise line executives were asked to share their predictions about when the cruise industry might begin rebounding to pre-pandemic levels.

Ken Muskat, COO of MSC Cruises, which is already operating limited cruises in the Mediterranean, told the travel advisors in attendance they should see, “the full fleet sailing by the end of summer ’21. We’re not slowing down by any means. I’m excited we’ve proven to be a leader in this ramp-up and restart.”

Muskat added that MSC’s global operational restart will be conducted, “slowly and through strict health and safety protocols. We are excited to get all the ships back in the water.”

When moderator Arnie Weissmann, Travel Weekly’s editor-in-chief, questioned Royal Caribbean Group’s CEO, Richard Fain, about when Royal Caribbean will be “back to full deployment,” the latter declined to specify a date.

“I actually think that it will be faster than people think,” said Fain. “Seeing is believing, and I think you will get a very fast buildup. By the late spring, summer you will see a real groundswell of people coming back. I think it will grow quickly. I won’t put a date on it, but it’s relatively fast.”

Fain speculated that strong bookings for spring and summer 2021, and even beyond, “reflects people’s eagerness to get back.” However, he also voiced the caveat that the current virus surge will need to subside “before we can get to where we’re sailing again.”

Weissmann also asked Arnold Donald, CEO of Carnival Corp., when he thought cruising would “return to pre-COVID conditions.” Donald was also careful in his reply, saying that the answer would depend upon which criteria are being used to measure the recovery, whether it’s passenger numbers, revenues or some other criteria.

“Overall, it will take us two to three years to get back to where we were, depending on when we actually start,” Donald prognosticated. “We could see it as early as late ’22, but more than likely, with the retirement of ships and the slow introduction of news ships, if it’s back to the level of guests traveling, and that depends on how long the itineraries are—there are a lot of variables here—you’re probably looking at a 2023 timeframe.”