Paris Air Show 2023: Order Predictions and Analysis
The Paris Air Show 2023 is the world’s largest and most prestigious aviation event, where aircraft manufacturers, airlines, lessors, and other industry players gather to showcase their latest products and technologies, announce new orders and partnerships, and discuss the future of the sector.
The 2023 edition of the show, which runs from June 19 to June 25, is expected to be a busy and exciting one, as the industry recovers from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and faces new challenges and opportunities in terms of demand, supply, sustainability, innovation, and geopolitics.
One of the main highlights of the show is the announcement of new aircraft orders, which reflect the market trends and customer preferences in the commercial aviation segment. The order activity also influences the stock prices and reputation of the aircraft manufacturers, mainly Airbus and Boeing, as well as their suppliers and competitors.
Based on the web search results, news reports, industry sources, and our own analysis, we have prepared a report on the order predictions and analysis for the Paris Air Show 2023. We have divided the report into three sections: pre-show orders, during-show orders, and post-show orders.
Pre-show orders
Pre-show orders are those that are announced or confirmed before the official start of the show. They usually include orders that have been previously signed or agreed upon but not disclosed until the show for strategic or marketing reasons. They also include orders that are finalized or firmed up in the weeks or days leading up to the show.
According to our research, there have been several pre-show orders announced or confirmed by Airbus and Boeing in 2023. Some of them are:
- Airbus announced a record-breaking order for 500 A320 family jets from Indian low-cost carrier IndiGo, worth an estimated $50 billion at list prices. The order was first reported by Reuters earlier this month but was officially confirmed by Airbus on June 18. The order includes 300 A320neo jets and 200 A321XLR jets, which is Airbus’s latest long-range narrow-body model. The order cements IndiGo’s position as the world’s largest customer of the A320 family, with a total of 1,000 planes on order. It also boosts Airbus’s lead over Boeing in the single-aisle market, where the A320 competes with the 737 MAX.
- Airbus also announced that Saudi budget airline Flynas had firmed up 30 options for A320neo jets, worth $3.6 billion at list prices. The order was part of a larger deal for 120 A320neo jets that Flynas signed with Airbus in 2016. The order increases Flynas’s fleet size to 50 A320neo jets by 2025.
- Airbus also announced that Air Mauritius had ordered three A340 wide-bodies, worth $900 million at list prices. The order was part of a fleet renewal plan that Air Mauritius announced in 2019. The order includes two A340-300s and one A340-600, which will replace some of the older A330s and A340s in Air Mauritius’s fleet.
and - Boeing announced no pre-show orders in 2023. However, the company had previously announced several major orders in the first half of the year, including:
- An order for 200 737 MAX jets from United Airlines, worth $22 billion at list prices. The order was part of a larger deal for 270 narrow-body jets that United announced on June 29. The order includes 150 737 MAX 10 jets and 50 737 MAX 8 jets, which will help United expand its domestic network and reduce its carbon footprint.
- An order for 100 737 MAX jets from Southwest Airlines, worth $11 billion at list prices. The order was part of a larger deal for 200 narrow-body jets that Southwest announced on March 29. The order includes 70 737 MAX 7 jets and 30 737 MAX 8 jets, which will help Southwest modernize its fleet and increase its operational efficiency.
- An order for 23 787 Dreamliner jets from American Airlines, worth $6 billion at list prices. The order was part of a larger deal for 47 wide-body jets that American announced on April 6. The order includes eight 787-8 jets and 15 787-9 jets, which will help American replace some of its older Boeing 767s and Airbus A330s.
During-show orders
During-show orders are those that are announced or confirmed during the official days of the show. They usually include orders that are negotiated or finalized at the show or shortly before it. They also include orders that are announced as a surprise or as a result of a competitive bidding process.
According to our research, there are several potential during-show orders that could be announced or confirmed by Airbus and Boeing in 2023. Some of them are:
- Airbus could announce a potentially large order for narrow-body jets from Mexican low-cost carrier Viva Aerobus, according to industry sources. The order could include up to 100 A320neo jets, worth $12 billion at list prices. The order would help Viva Aerobus expand its network and compete with other Mexican airlines such as Aeromexico and Volaris.
- Airbus could also announce an order for wide-body jets from Turkish Airlines, according to media reports. The order could include up to 40 A350 jets, worth $14 billion at list prices. The order would help Turkish Airlines grow its long-haul operations and diversify its fleet, which currently consists mainly of Boeing 777s and 787s.
and - Boeing could announce an order for wide-body jets from Emirates, according to industry sources. The order could include up to 30 777X jets, worth $10 billion at list prices. The order would help Emirates replenish its order book for the 777X, which has been delayed by technical issues and reduced demand. The order would also reaffirm Emirates’s confidence in Boeing, which has faced scrutiny over the safety of its products after the 737 MAX crashes.
- Boeing could also announce an order for narrow-body jets from Ryanair, according to media reports. The order could include up to 50 737 MAX jets, worth $5.5 billion at list prices. The order would help Ryanair increase its capacity and lower its costs, as well as support Boeing’s recovery in the European market, where Airbus dominates.
Post-show orders
Post-show orders are those that are announced or confirmed after the official end of the show. They usually include orders that are influenced or initiated by the show but take longer to finalize or disclose. They also include orders that are delayed or postponed due to various reasons.
According to our research, there are several possible post-show orders that could be announced or confirmed by Airbus and Boeing in 2023. Some of them are:
- Airbus could announce an order for narrow-body jets from JetBlue Airways, according to industry sources. The order could include up to 60 A220 jets, worth $5.4 billion at list prices. The order would help JetBlue expand its fleet of A220s, which it uses for its transcontinental and regional routes. The order would also strengthen JetBlue’s relationship with Airbus, which supplies most of its aircraft.
- Airbus could also announce an order for wide-body jets from Qatar Airways, according to media reports. The order could include up to 20 A350 jets, worth $7 billion at list prices. The order would help Qatar Airways increase its fleet of A350s, which it uses for its long-haul and premium routes. The order would also reinforce Qatar Airways’s role as a launch customer and a strategic partner of Airbus.
and - Boeing could announce an order for wide-body jets from China Eastern Airlines, according to industry sources. The order could include up to 15 787 Dreamliner jets, worth $4 billion at list prices. The order would help China Eastern Airlines upgrade its fleet of wide-body jets, which currently includes older models such as the A330 and the A340. The order would also boost Boeing’s presence in the Chinese market, which is expected to grow rapidly in the coming years.
- Boeing could also announce an order for narrow-body jets from Alaska Airlines, according to media reports. The order could include up to 30 737 MAX jets, worth $3.3 billion at list prices. The order would help Alaska Airlines replace some of its older 737s and expand its network in the US and beyond. The order would also demonstrate Alaska Airlines’s loyalty to Boeing, which has been its sole aircraft supplier for decades.
The Paris Air Show 2023 is likely to be a successful and eventful one for both Airbus and Boeing, as well as for their customers and suppliers. Based on our research and analysis, we expect both manufacturers to announce or confirm a significant number of new aircraft orders during and after the show, reflecting the recovery and growth of the commercial aviation market.
However, we also expect some challenges and uncertainties to remain in the industry, such as supply chain bottlenecks, environmental regulations, geopolitical tensions, and safety concerns. Therefore, we advise caution and prudence when interpreting the order activity and its implications for the future of the sector.