Boeing Lowers 20-Year Jet Forecast Ahead of Paris Airshow

Boeing has slightly lowered its 20-year forecast for global jet demand, projecting 43,600 new aircraft deliveries through 2044. The update, released ahead of the Paris Airshow, is nearly flat compared to last year’s estimate of 43,975 deliveries through 2043.

The forecast anticipates global air travel demand to rise over 40% by 2030. Single-aisle aircraft like Boeing’s 737 MAX and Airbus’s A320neo family will dominate, comprising nearly 33,300 deliveries. Widebody jets are expected to total 7,800 units, alongside 955 freighters and 1,545 regional aircraft.

While delivery projections remain stable, Boeing trimmed its forecast for passenger traffic growth from 4.7% to 4.2%. The company also reduced its expectations for global economic growth (2.3% from 2.6%), cargo traffic growth (3.7% from 4.1%), and fleet growth (3.1% from 3.2%). Despite these adjustments, Boeing Vice President of Commercial Marketing Darren Hulst said long-term air cargo demand remains strong, averaging 4% growth over the past decades.

Airplane production remains constrained post-pandemic, with an estimated shortfall of 1,500 to 2,000 aircraft. Boeing continues to face production challenges, including safety concerns after a 2024 mid-air blowout on an Alaska Airlines 737 MAX. The FAA has capped 737 production at 38 jets per month. Additionally, an Air India Boeing 787-8 crash has further impacted Boeing, with CEO Kelly Ortberg canceling his Paris Airshow appearance to focus on the investigation.

China and South/Southeast Asia are projected to drive half of future growth, while North America and Eurasia will lead in aircraft replacements. Boeing expects deliveries to China to resume soon after previous delays caused by U.S.-China trade tensions.


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Sources: AirGuide Business airguide.info, bing.com, yahoo.com, boeing.com