Airbus Forecasts Freighter Fleet to Grow 45% by 2045
Airbus expects the global freighter fleet to grow by 45% over the next two decades, reaching approximately 3,420 aircraft, according to its 2025 Cargo Global Market Forecast released October 22, 2025. The total includes 815 aircraft already in service and 2,605 additional freighters that will enter the market through replacements and fleet expansion.
Of the 2,605 new freighters expected, Airbus projects that 1,530 will replace aging models while 1,075 will support growing demand. By category, airlines will require around 1,120 small freighters, 855 mid-size widebodies, and 630 large widebodies. The manufacturer anticipates that 1,670 of those aircraft will come from passenger-to-freighter (P2F) conversions, while 935 will be newly built freighters.
Airbus attributes the growth to long-term economic expansion and rising global trade. It forecasts world trade to grow at a 2.7% compound annual growth rate, with air cargo demand increasing at 3.3% annually—nearly doubling volumes over the period. The company emphasized that air cargo continues to play a critical role in supporting supply chains, healthcare logistics, e-commerce, remote connectivity, and emerging market development.
Asia-Pacific and North America are expected to generate the strongest demand, accounting for nearly two-thirds of future freighter deliveries, needing about 850 and 920 aircraft respectively. Airbus also expects older freighters to be replaced with more fuel-efficient models, including the A350F and Airbus A320/A321 and A330 P2F conversions.
The forecast aligns with Airbus’s broader market outlook, which projects demand for 43,420 new passenger and cargo aircraft between 2025 and 2044.
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Sources: AirGuide Business airguide.info, bing.com