MIT Develops Lightning-Prediction Tool to Protect Future Aircraft Designs

More than 70 aircraft are struck by lightning every day, yet passengers rarely notice thanks to advanced lightning-protection systems. These systems, however, are optimized for traditional “tube-and-wing” aircraft. As the aviation industry explores futuristic configurations like blended-wing bodies and truss-braced designs to improve fuel efficiency, researchers at MIT have developed a new physics-based lightning-prediction tool to ensure the next generation of airplanes remains safe.

The innovative approach, created by MIT’s Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AeroAstro), predicts how lightning currents would attach to and move across any aircraft surface — even those with unconventional geometries. The model generates detailed “zoning maps” highlighting which parts of an aircraft are most vulnerable, allowing engineers to design protection systems tailored to each section.

“People are starting to conceive aircraft that look very different from what we’re used to,” said Associate Professor Carmen Guerra-Garcia, who led the study. “Physics-based methods are universal and can be applied to any geometry. This is the path forward to protect future aircraft.” The research, published in IEEE Access, was co-authored by graduate student Nathanael Jenkins and Boeing researchers Louisa Michael and Benjamin Westin.

Lightning typically strikes sharp edges or extremities, clinging for up to a second while the aircraft continues moving through the air. This motion causes the current to “sweep” across the fuselage, potentially re-attaching at other points and damaging vulnerable areas. MIT’s new model simulates these interactions using fluid dynamics to calculate how lightning would move over a plane’s surface at different speeds, altitudes, and angles.

The researchers first validated their tool on a conventional tube-and-wing design, confirming that its zoning maps aligned with decades of industry data. They then began applying it to experimental aircraft shapes, including blended-wing and truss-braced configurations. The maps identify regions where lightning is most likely to dwell and cause damage, helping engineers determine where lightweight conductive materials — like copper mesh or foil — are truly necessary.

“Protecting aircraft from lightning is heavy,” explained Jenkins. “If we applied the highest level of protection everywhere, the plane would weigh too much. Zoning helps optimize safety while minimizing weight.”

Traditional lightning-zoning methods rely on years of post-flight inspections and accumulated strike data, but future aircraft will not have such historical records. MIT’s physics-based model eliminates that limitation by using simulation rather than past experience. The system calculates both the probability of lightning attachment and the dwell time — how long an electric arc remains at a specific point. Areas with longer dwell times are assigned higher protection zones.

According to Boeing’s Louisa Michael, the collaboration could shape future certification standards: “With physics-based methods like those developed by Professor Guerra-Garcia’s team, we can build industry guidelines based on the underlying physics rather than historical assumptions.” Fellow Boeing researcher Ben Westin added that the approach will “allow design engineers to confidently identify the threat levels each aircraft component needs to be certified for.”

Beyond aviation, Guerra-Garcia’s group plans to adapt the same model for other industries, such as wind energy. Lightning is responsible for about 60% of turbine-blade losses, and the problem is expected to worsen as offshore turbines grow larger. Applying physics-based lightning mapping could significantly reduce maintenance costs and improve operational safety for renewable-energy infrastructure.

This groundbreaking research, funded in part by The Boeing Company, marks a major step toward designing lighter, safer, and more resilient aircraft — and could help shape certification standards for the future of flight.

Sources: AirGuide Business airguide.info, bing.com, news.mit.edu