Boeing Predicts Higher Deliveries in 2026 as Stored Jets Run Out

Boeing expects aircraft deliveries to rise in 2026, marking a potential turning point for the manufacturer as it emerges from years of inventory overhang, production limits, and financial strain. Speaking at the UBS Global Industrials and Transportation Conference, Boeing’s new chief financial officer, Jay Malave, said the jetmaker has now fully exhausted its stockpile of “deliverable” stored aircraft—meaning future delivery growth will depend entirely on ramped-up production rather than drawing down inventory.

Malave described 2026 as a year of “stronger cash flow” driven primarily by higher deliveries, accelerated production, and a more normal cash collection cycle. For the first time since the 737 Max crisis and pandemic disruptions, Boeing is no longer relying on a backlog of previously built but undelivered jets, which had been a major source of cash inflow over the past several years.

Boeing recently received approval from the Federal Aviation Administration to increase 737 production to 42 aircraft per month—its first rate increase in nearly two years. The higher output is expected to help stabilize cash flow, reduce penalties tied to delayed deliveries, and improve unit economics across the Commercial Airplanes division.

According to Malave, boosting deliveries has a “double benefit.” Boeing only collects full payment at the moment of delivery, which means delays tie up working capital. At the same time, the company has been paying financial penalties to customers when aircraft are delivered late. Increasing delivery rates shortens inventory holding times, reduces penalty exposure, and improves Boeing’s cash margins.

“With higher deliveries, you turn working capital faster and improve unit costs,” Malave said. “That gives cash margins a significant boost between now and the end of the decade.”

Still, questions remain about whether the global supply chain—which continues to face shortages of forgings, castings, and key engine components—can support Boeing’s ambitions. Malave acknowledged the challenges but expressed confidence that supply pressures will ease “naturally” over time and will not alter the company’s long-term delivery trajectory.

Boeing expects its free cash flow to grow year over year in the “low single-digit billions” beginning in 2026. This represents a notable improvement from recent years, which were marked by negative cash flow and billions in charges related to the 737 Max and 777X programs.

The company’s financial outlook for 2025 has also improved after a major payment to the U.S. Department of Justice was pushed into 2026. Under the renewed agreement linked to the 737 MAX crashes, Boeing must contribute $444.5 million to a settlement fund for victims’ families and pay an additional $243.6 million fine. The delay provides some near-term relief.

Malave said Boeing now expects to end 2025 with approximately $2 billion in cash outflow—better than previous forecasts—since the DOJ payment is no longer included in that year’s results. Even with the additional $700 million burden rolling into 2026, Boeing still anticipates free cash flow to grow.

The CFO also referenced the nearly $5 billion charge Boeing recorded earlier this year tied to delays in certifying and delivering the 777X, which remains in flight testing and is expected to enter service in 2026 or 2027. Despite the 777X challenges, Boeing expects widebody deliveries, particularly the 787 and 777F, to support cash generation through the decade.

With inventory now depleted, Boeing’s path to recovery hinges almost entirely on restoring production stability and meeting delivery commitments. If the supply chain cooperates, the company believes it can steadily rebuild financial strength after years of unprecedented disruption.

Sources: AirGuide Business airguide.info, bing.com, aerospaceglobalnews.com