Airbus revises its 20 year jet deliveries forecast amid higher energy costs

Europe’s Airbus has revised up its forecast for jet deliveries over the next 20 years as soaring fuel bills prompt airlines to seek new, more fuel-efficient planes.

Despite the war in Ukraine and a spike in inflation, Airbus edged up its average forecast for annual GDP growth to 2.6% from 2.5% in its latest 20-year outlook published on Monday.

But it saw passenger traffic growing more slowly than before, by 3.6% a year rather than 3.9% forecast in November.

That’s partly the result of higher energy and carbon prices that push up fares.

But it believes a spike in energy costs will also encourage many airlines to accelerate deliveries of fuel-saving models.

Airbus predicts total deliveries of 39,490 jets over the next 20 years, up from 39,020 forecast previously.

Airbus Global Market Forecast 2022

The increase is partly due to 2021 dropping out of the rolling 20-year forecast period, an exceptionally weak year depressed by the pandemic.

It expects deliveries to include 38,600 passenger jets – up from 38,140 previously forecast – and 890 freighters, up from 880.

Airbus still expects air traffic to recover to pre-pandemic levels some time between 2023 and 2025, as the industry faces pressures from inflation to rises in energy prices as well as the risk of further outbreaks of variants of COVID-19.

However, the planemaker expects its best and worst case scenarios for traffic to regain 2019 levels some six months later than its previous forecast, according to charts supplied with the data. reuters.com