Aviation 2020 to 2030. A COVID reality check for airlines

It is time the industry and governments faced up to the fact that restoring the status quo ante is no longer an option.

This was the key takeaway from the introductory presentation at CAPA Live on 11-Nov-2020.

As we look ahead through the next decade, it is time for a reality check – a reality check nine months on from when the horrible COVID-19 disaster beset the world, in turn looking at a new platform for building for the next decade.

That is to say, the new starting point as 2021 beckons.

What will be the platform for the future growth? And what will shape that growth as industry revenues slump by more than half 2019 levels in 2021?

Summary:

• 2021’s airline revenue pool will be less than half of 2019’s.
• We’re entering a revenue funnel and airlines will confront a cash crisis this winter.
• The industry will confront an environmental climate even tougher than before: “Airlines have been enormously conspicuous for their absence. But they will be vastly more conspicuous for their return.”
• Distribution will be substantially disrupted.
• Network profiles will accentuate long haul narrowbody aircraft operations.
• Government involvement is inevitably going to increase.
• Business travel has become an endangered species as 60% of business revenues evaporate.
• The rise of China as the leading force has been accelerated by COVID-19.
• Like the threat of terrorism, we will have to learn to live with the virus.
• A vaccine is far from being the silver bullet.
• International cooperation is more important than any vaccine.