CBRE Again Hikes U.S. Lodging Forecast

Thanks to what it called inflationary rate increases, a sunny economic outlook and a slowing pace of new hotel construction, CBRE Hotels Research yet again has upgraded its 2022 U.S. lodging forecast and now projects 2022 revenue per available room to reach 2019 levels, while average daily rate already has.

First-quarter U.S. RevPAR reached $72.20, according to CBRE, up 61 percent year over year, while occupancy increased 16 percent and ADR increased 39 percent. ADR was 5 percent of 2019 levels, suggesting that neither Covid-19 nor rising gas and other prices have dented demand.

“To date, there has been no sign that the more than 50 percent increase in gas prices and the stock market’s hovering near bear-market territory are dampening hotel demand,” CBRE head of hotel research and data analytics said Rachael Rothman said in a statement. “However, in the past, a steep decline in the S&P 500 and high gas prices have often caused RevPAR growth to decline, which raises the specter of a pullback in RevPAR later this year. Despite this possibility, our outlook remains that the market will continue to recover.”

CBRE noted that while inflation has boosted rates, it also has pressured hotel finances regarding wages and food and beverage costs, and rising construction costs are inhibiting new hotel construction. The company forecast supply during the next five years to increase at a 1.2 percent compound annual growth rate, “below the industry’s 1.8 percent long-term historical average.”

Chris Davis  www.businesstravelnews.com