Embraer Projects 10,500 Aircraft Orders by 2044

Embraer has released its latest 20-year Market Outlook, forecasting global demand for 10,500 new jets and turboprops in the sub-150-seat category by 2044. The company estimates that these aircraft orders could be worth as much as $680 billion. The forecast, published on June 12, 2025, comes just ahead of the highly anticipated Paris Air Show, where Embraer is expected to showcase its growing portfolio of regional aircraft solutions.

According to Embraer President and CEO of Commercial Aviation, Arjan Meijer, regional connectivity will play an increasingly critical role as nations seek greater strategic autonomy. Meijer emphasized that mixed fleets combining smaller regional jets with larger narrowbodies will be essential to meet this long-term growth. “As countries and regions pursue greater strategic autonomy, the demand for regional access will continue to grow,” Meijer said while presenting the company’s outlook.

Embraer predicts that global passenger traffic will expand at an average compound annual growth rate of 3.9% between 2025 and 2044. The forecast highlights significant regional variations, with China expected to lead global growth at 5.7% annually in Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPKs). Latin America follows with projected annual growth of 4.7%, while Africa and the Middle East are both forecast to grow at 4.4%. The Asia Pacific region is expected to see 4.1% growth, Europe including the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) at 3.3%, and North America at 2.4%.

By the end of the 20-year period, Asia Pacific is projected to account for 39% of global passenger traffic, while Europe and North America combined will represent 37%. These trends point to increasing demand for smaller, more flexible aircraft to serve both high-growth and mature markets with varying travel patterns and infrastructure needs.

Embraer’s forecast breaks down the expected aircraft demand into two main categories: jets and turboprops. Of the 10,500 new aircraft needed, 8,720 will be jets, while 1,780 will be turboprops. In terms of regional jet demand, North America is projected to take the largest share with 2,680 new aircraft. Europe and the CIS are expected to account for 1,990 aircraft, followed by China with 1,500, Asia Pacific with 1,050, Latin America with 770, Africa with 380, and the Middle East with 350 jet deliveries.

In the turboprop market, Asia Pacific leads demand with 640 aircraft, reflecting growing interest in smaller, fuel-efficient planes for short-haul regional routes. North America is forecasted to receive 280 turboprops, followed by Europe and the CIS with 260, Africa with 220, China with 200, Latin America with 160, and the Middle East with 20 turboprop deliveries.

Embraer’s outlook reinforces the importance of the regional aircraft segment as the global aviation industry evolves to meet shifting passenger demand, infrastructure limitations, and environmental goals. As air travel continues to recover and expand, Embraer remains well-positioned to capitalize on growth opportunities with its versatile fleet of E-Jets and next-generation turboprop designs.

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