Global Airport Passenger Traffic Set for Long-Term Surge
Passenger traffic at airports worldwide has not only rebounded to pre-pandemic levels but has surpassed them, with 2024 figures reaching 9.5 billion—up 9% from 2023 and 104% of 2019 levels, according to the latest forecast by Airports Council International World (ACI). The recovery signals significant long-term growth, with ACI projecting that global passenger numbers will rise to 9.9 billion in 2025, a 4.8% increase over 2024.
ACI notes that while the current demand remains robust, the rapid recovery pace is expected to transition into a more moderate, structurally driven growth over the coming decades. The organization highlights that factors such as economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and airline capacity constraints will increasingly influence the industry’s future trajectory. In mature markets, issues like aircraft supply chain challenges and airport capacity shortages may temper growth, leading to a period of demand stabilization. Conversely, in emerging markets, high infrastructure investment coupled with a rising middle class is likely to drive continued expansion.
Looking ahead over the next 30 years, ACI’s forecast is ambitious. By 2043, airports globally are expected to handle 17.7 billion passengers, and that number is projected to nearly double by 2045 to 18.7 billion. Long-term projections extend even further, with passenger volumes predicted to reach 22.3 billion by 2053.
However, the organization also acknowledges that the pandemic has set back growth potential by three to four years. Prior to COVID-19, global passenger volume was anticipated to hit 11.4 billion in 2024—a figure now adjusted lower by about 20% compared to pre-pandemic expectations.
On the market front, ACI forecasts notable shifts in global rankings by passenger volume. China is expected to surpass the United States as the largest air transport market by 2042. In addition, Indonesia is forecast to leap from the 13th to the 4th largest market by the same year, with India retaining its current position as the third largest. Spain, currently the fourth biggest market, is also expected to remain in the top five, rounding out the forecast for 2042.
This optimistic long-term outlook underscores the transformative potential for the aviation industry over the next few decades, even as it contends with emerging challenges and shifting market dynamics. Airports worldwide are poised for a future of steady, significant growth—a trend that promises to reshape global travel and connectivity in profound ways.
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