Hilton 2025 Outlook: Slower Growth, Softening Demand
Hilton has unveiled its 2025 outlook, projecting a more modest growth trajectory compared to the strong performance witnessed in 2024. In a detailed announcement on February 6, 2025, the hotel giant acknowledged that the softening leisure travel demand—driven by growing financial hardships—has prompted the company to lower its earnings per share (EPS) guidance for the upcoming year.
In 2024, Hilton experienced a banner year marked by an 11% year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA, reflecting robust operational performance. The company also achieved a net unit growth of 7.8% and reported an adjusted diluted EPS of $7.12, a 15% improvement over 2023. These strong results were driven by outstanding performance across all segments, with impressive gains in leisure occupancy, business transient, and group travel contributing to a significant boost in revenue per available room (RevPAR).
However, looking ahead to 2025, Hilton expects a slower growth pattern. Financial analysts had anticipated an EPS of $8.02, but the company has revised its full-year diluted EPS forecast to a range between $7.45 and $7.56. Alongside the adjusted EPS, Hilton forecasts RevPAR to grow by two to three percent and predicts net unit growth to fall between six and seven percent. Despite the tempered growth outlook, adjusted EBITDA is expected to rise to between $3.7 billion and $3.74 billion, still comfortably above the $3.43 billion achieved in 2024.
“We are pleased to report a strong fourth quarter, with both top and bottom line results exceeding our expectations,” said Christopher J. Nassetta, President & Chief Executive Officer of Hilton. “All segments drove RevPAR outperformance, with strong trends in leisure occupancy, as well as continued growth in business transient and group results, and we expect favorable trends to continue into 2025.” Nassetta emphasized that while the outlook is more modest this year, Hilton remains confident in its ability to navigate the evolving market dynamics.
Highlighting the company’s robust development efforts, Nassetta added, “We also delivered the highest number of approvals, construction starts, and openings in our history in 2024, helping us achieve net unit growth of 7.3%. With a development pipeline of nearly half a million rooms, we are confident that we are well positioned to deliver net unit growth between 6.0 percent and 7.0 percent in 2025.” This impressive pipeline underscores Hilton’s commitment to long-term expansion even as short-term growth is expected to moderate.
The softer growth forecast for 2025 reflects broader industry challenges, particularly in the leisure segment where financial hardships are beginning to impact consumer spending. Hilton’s recalibrated outlook suggests that while overall demand remains positive, market conditions are prompting a cautious approach to future growth projections. This shift in strategy underscores the company’s proactive efforts to adapt to changing travel trends and maintain operational efficiency amid uncertain economic conditions.
Hilton’s strategic focus remains on delivering high-quality guest experiences, driving operational excellence, and ensuring a balanced portfolio of growth across both leisure and business segments. As the hospitality landscape continues to evolve, Hilton’s leadership is committed to leveraging its strong brand, extensive global footprint, and impressive development pipeline to create sustainable value for shareholders and memorable experiences for guests.
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