Japan New Year Travel to China Holds Up Despite Tensions

Japanese outbound travel is set to rebound strongly over the year-end and New Year holidays, with trips to China remaining resilient despite ongoing political tensions. Travel agency JTB said on December 4 that the number of Japanese traveling overseas during the holiday period is expected to reach 1 million, up 32% year on year and about 90% of pre-pandemic levels.

The increase is being driven largely by affluent travelers benefiting from asset gains linked to the recent stock market rally. Many are choosing long-haul, high-priced trips to Europe and the United States, creating a clear divide between premium travelers and those opting for low-cost, short-duration trips to nearby destinations.

Despite the Chinese government’s advisory urging its citizens to exercise caution when traveling to Japan amid strained bilateral relations, Japanese demand for travel to China has shown little sign of weakening. Japan’s two major airlines, ANA and JAL, said they have not seen any significant changes in bookings on China routes over the next three months.

Tour products offered by Hankyu Travel, including packages featuring visits to Shanghai Disneyland and Hong Kong Disneyland, have gained popularity among Japanese families. Bookings for trips to mainland China through the agency have more than tripled, highlighting sustained consumer interest.

Domestic travel in Japan during the year-end and New Year period is also expected to remain strong, with trips projected to total 38.86 million, a 2% increase from the previous year.

While the number of Chinese visitors, who typically account for around 20% of Japan’s inbound tourists, has declined, there has so far been no noticeable downward pressure on hotel prices across Japan, suggesting overall travel demand remains robust.

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