Japan Tourism Surplus Falls as Chinese Arrivals Drop

Japan’s tourism surplus declined sharply at the start of 2026, as a drop in Chinese arrivals combined with a surge in outbound travel spending by Japanese residents. The latest data highlights shifting travel patterns that are narrowing one of the country’s key service-sector surpluses.

According to balance-of-payments figures released by Japan’s Ministry of Finance on March 9, the tourism surplus stood at JPY 590.1 billion (approximately USD 3.7 billion) in January. This represents a 10.4% year-on-year decline and marks the eighth consecutive month of contraction.

The tourism balance measures the difference between spending by inbound foreign visitors in Japan and spending by Japanese travelers abroad. In recent years, strong inbound tourism—particularly from China and other Asian markets—has helped maintain a consistent surplus. However, recent trends suggest that balance is beginning to shift.

A key factor behind the decline is weaker inbound travel. The number of visitors to Japan fell 4.9% year-on-year in January, the first drop in four years. The decline was largely driven by a reduction in Chinese tourists, following a travel advisory issued by Beijing urging caution for travelers visiting Japan. China has traditionally been one of Japan’s largest and most important inbound tourism markets, making any change in travel flows particularly impactful.

Despite the drop in arrivals, spending by foreign visitors still rose slightly, reaching JPY 819.4 billion (about USD 5.17 billion). This suggests that higher per-visitor spending is partially offsetting the decline in overall tourist numbers, supported by favorable exchange rates and continued demand from other markets.

At the same time, outbound travel by Japanese residents is accelerating. The number of Japanese travelers going overseas increased by 17.6% compared to the previous year. More significantly, their spending abroad surged 51.7% to JPY 229.3 billion (approximately USD 1.45 billion).

The depreciation of the yen has played a dual role in this trend. While it makes Japan more attractive to foreign visitors, it also increases the cost of overseas travel for Japanese residents when measured in local currency, amplifying total spending abroad and reducing the tourism surplus.

The combined effect of fewer inbound visitors and higher outbound expenditure is putting sustained pressure on Japan’s tourism balance. If these trends continue, the country may see further narrowing of its surplus in the months ahead.

For policymakers and the travel industry, the data underscores the importance of stabilizing inbound demand—particularly from key markets such as China—while managing the impact of rising outbound travel.