SAF Supply Falls Short of Airline 2030 Goals

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production is falling well short of what airlines need to meet their 2030 climate targets, raising fresh concerns about the pace of aviation decarbonization. Airlines have broadly set a goal of using SAF for around 10% of global jet fuel consumption by the end of the decade, but industry forecasts suggest that target is increasingly unrealistic.

According to the International Air Transport Association’s latest outlook, SAF production is expected to slow after 2025 rather than accelerate at the scale required. IATA forecasts global SAF output of about 800 million gallons in 2026, a figure that represents only a small fraction of total jet fuel demand worldwide. Even under optimistic assumptions, SAF volumes would cover just a few percentage points of airline fuel needs, leaving a wide gap between ambition and reality.

IATA Director General Willie Walsh has been blunt in his assessment, describing the 2030 SAF targets as unachievable under current market conditions. He has pointed to persistently high SAF prices and limited supply as the primary obstacles. SAF typically costs several times more than conventional jet fuel, making widespread adoption economically challenging for airlines already operating on thin margins.

Supply constraints remain a major issue. While dozens of SAF projects have been announced globally, many face delays related to financing, feedstock availability, regulatory approvals, and infrastructure development. In addition, competition for feedstocks from other sectors, such as renewable diesel and chemicals, is further limiting the volume of SAF available to aviation.

Despite the near-term challenges, Walsh has stressed that the industry’s long-term goal of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 remains intact. However, he has acknowledged that achieving this target is becoming increasingly complex as progress on SAF production lags behind expectations. SAF is widely viewed as the most viable decarbonization lever for aviation over the next several decades, particularly for long-haul flights where alternatives such as electrification or hydrogen remain technologically distant.

Airlines, fuel producers, and governments are all being urged to play a stronger role. Walsh has called for clearer policy frameworks, incentives for SAF investment, and mandates that are matched with realistic supply growth. Without coordinated action, airlines risk being held to environmental targets that cannot be met due to factors outside their control.

The growing gap between SAF ambition and supply highlights a critical tension in aviation’s climate strategy. While demand for cleaner flying is rising and commitments are becoming more ambitious, production realities suggest that the industry will struggle to deliver meaningful SAF adoption by 2030. As the decade progresses, the focus is likely to shift toward accelerating long-term solutions while recalibrating short-term expectations to reflect market and supply-chain constraints.

Related News: https://airguide.info/category/air-travel-business/airline-finance/

Sources: AirGuide Business airguide.info, bing.com