Ryanair hopes for 4Q21 recovery but slams Irish policies

Ryanair Holdings plans to return to pre-pandemic capacity Europe-wide in October 2021 but expects to move a sizeable part of its operations from Ireland to other markets, where governments are more supportive of the tourism industry, Chief Executive Michael O’Leary said.

“As long as there are no adverse COVID developments, things are set fair for a very strong recovery,” O’Leary told Reuters.

He added that demand and pricing are expected to lag while capacity will return to pre-pandemic levels this fall. In the fourth quarter of 2021, Ryanair hopes to see an 80-85% average load factor, around 10 points below historical levels. Both load factors and fares are forecast to fully rebound by summer 2022.

However, while the system-wide recovery is progressing smoothly, O’Leary pointed out that not all markets would rebound equally. In particular, he slammed the Irish government’s policies, accusing it of not doing enough to support inbound tourism. As a result, Ryanair could move 10-20% of its Irish capacity to other markets.

“I would be very worried for Irish tourism. There is no agenda for transport in this country. Ireland is an island on the periphery of Europe. Aviation and tourism should be front and centre of government policy… But Ireland is sitting on its hands. [Minister of Transport] Eamon Ryan doesn’t give a shite about aviation,” O’Leary said.

He criticised the lack of support for the Dublin Airport Authority, which, in turn, has been prevented from offering steep discounts to airlines to attract more traffic. However, Ryan responded that the government has earmarked EUR130 million euros (USD154.2 million) for the DAA and regional Irish airports but could not force them to use the funds to finance discounts for airlines during a period when there is little demand to attract them in the first place.

For now, the ch-aviation capacities module shows, Dublin Int’l remains the second largest airport in Ryanair’s network with a 3.9% share by weekly departure capacity. Only London Stansted is a more significant point of origin for the low-cost carrier.