The Top 10 contenders for the EV crown are challenging king Tesla

Tesla makes the bestselling all-battery electric vehicle model in the world—by far. But others are making a run for the top spot, new numbers show.

The EV pioneer’s Model 3 holds the No. 1 spot—and Model Y is a not-too-distant second—but Tesla (ticker: TSLA) is still losing global market share, according to Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi.

Tesla’s global BEV share totaled 26% last year, down from 28% in 2020. The share shrinks—to 17% from 18%—when plug-in hybrid sales are added in.

The decline can be chalked up to the dozens of new BEV models released last year. Sacconaghi counted 88 in 2021, up from 83 in 2020, and 67 in 2019.

Investors knew Tesla was going to face fierce competition—sooner or later. Still, tracking the company’s global share, especially by region, will help them project where the EV industry is headed—and whether the stock if a Buy, or not.

Tesla’s North American market share, for example, grew last year—to 75% from 71% in 2020. Its gain in Europe was even bigger: 18% vs. 13%.

But sales dipped in China—to 19% from 20%—and fell by half—to 18% from 36%—in a catchall region called “the rest of the world.” Sacconaghi didn’t count micro-EVs, the smallest models that are popular mainly in China.

The top five bestsellers: Tesla Model 3, 481,204; Tesla Model Y, 427,935; BYD (1211. Hong Kong) Han, 87,293; Renault (RNO. France) Zoe, 77,948; and Volkswagen (VOW3. Germany) ID. 3, 76,235.

Tesla Model 3 and Y sales totaled 909,139 units in 2021, up 105% from the roughly 443,000 shipped in 2020. The next 10 EV models sold 691,000 units, up from 410,000.

A faster growth rate gave Tesla about 57% of the top 12-model sales, up from 52%. Tesla’s overall share loss came at the lower end of the market; all the new models eroded share in China and the rest of the world.

Overall, 3.6 million BEVs and 1.9 million PHEVs were sold in 2021. The 5.5 million total represented about 7% to 8% of global light vehicle sales, up from 3% to 4% of light vehicle sales in 2020.

Tesla would do well to maintain 18% or 20% of the BEV market in coming years. The largest global auto makers have roughly 10% of the total market for light vehicles. Hanging on to a fifth of the market could be bullish for the stock.

Sacconaghi, for his part, isn’t so sure about long-term share. He rates Tesla stock Sell and has a $450 price target. The analyst believes Tesla will need more models, besides the 3 and Y, to drive growth.

On Monday, Tesla shares closed down 5.9%. The S&P 500 ended the session down 0.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite was off about 1.2%.

The drop in the Nasdaq might explain about half of Tesla’s drop. The auto maker tends to be more volatile than that index. The rest might be due to a slower-than-expected production ramp in Shanghai, which has been in lockdown for weeks because of China’s zero-Covid policy.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com

T esla makes the bestselling all-battery electric vehicle model in the world—by far. But others are making a run for the top spot, new numbers show.

T he EV pioneer’s Model 3 holds the No. 1 spot—and Model Y is a not-too-distant second—but Tesla (ticker: TSLA) is still losing global market share, according to Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi.

Tesla’s global BEV share totaled 26% last year, down from 28% in 2020. The share shrinks—to 17% from 18%—when plug-in hybrid sales are added in.

The decline can be chalked up to the dozens of new BEV models released last year. Sacconaghi counted 88 in 2021, up from 83 in 2020, and 67 in 2019.

Investors knew Tesla was going to face fierce competition—sooner or later. Still, tracking the company’s global share, especially by region, will help them project where the EV industry is headed—and whether the stock if a Buy, or not.

Tesla’s North American market share, for example, grew last year—to 75% from 71% in 2020. Its gain in Europe was even bigger: 18% vs. 13%.

But sales dipped in China—to 19% from 20%—and fell by half—to 18% from 36%—in a catchall region called “the rest of the world.” Sacconaghi didn’t count micro-EVs, the smallest models that are popular mainly in China.

The top five bestsellers: Tesla Model 3, 481,204; Tesla Model Y, 427,935; BYD (1211. Hong Kong) Han, 87,293; Renault (RNO. France) Zoe, 77,948; and Volkswagen (VOW3. Germany) ID. 3, 76,235.

Tesla Model 3 and Y sales totaled 909,139 units in 2021, up 105% from the roughly 443,000 shipped in 2020. The next 10 EV models sold 691,000 units, up from 410,000.

A faster growth rate gave Tesla about 57% of the top 12-model sales, up from 52%. Tesla’s overall share loss came at the lower end of the market; all the new models eroded share in China and the rest of the world.

Overall, 3.6 million BEVs and 1.9 million PHEVs were sold in 2021. The 5.5 million total represented about 7% to 8% of global light vehicle sales, up from 3% to 4% of light vehicle sales in 2020.

Tesla would do well to maintain 18% or 20% of the BEV market in coming years. The largest global auto makers have roughly 10% of the total market for light vehicles. Hanging on to a fifth of the market could be bullish for the stock.

Sacconaghi, for his part, isn’t so sure about long-term share. He rates Tesla stock Sell and has a $450 price target. The analyst believes Tesla will need more models, besides the 3 and Y, to drive growth.

On Monday, Tesla shares closed down 5.9%. The S&P 500 ended the session down 0.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite was off about 1.2%.

The drop in the Nasdaq might explain about half of Tesla’s drop. The auto maker tends to be more volatile than that index. The rest might be due to a slower-than-expected production ramp in Shanghai, which has been in lockdown for weeks because of China’s zero-Covid policy.

By Al Root dowjones.com