Boeing Raises 20-Year Forecast to 42,595 Jet Deliveries as Narrowbody Demand Soars

Boeing has increased its annual 20-year projection for new jetliner deliveries slightly, driven by the strong demand for narrowbody planes from low-cost carriers.

According to its latest market outlook released on Sunday ahead of the Paris Airshow, Boeing expects airlines will need 42,595 new jets from 2022 to 2042, up from 41,170 planes in its previous forecast last year.

However, this estimate is still lower than the 43,610 new jets that Boeing predicted in 2021, when it included Russian aircraft demand in its outlook.

Boeing forecasts that single-aisle jets like its 737 MAX or the A320neo family made by its European rival Airbus will dominate the market, with 32,420 narrowbody planes delivered over the next 20 years.

This demand will be fueled by low-cost carriers, which are expected to double their current fleet size, said Darren Hulst, Boeing’s vice president of commercial marketing, during a briefing with reporters before the report’s release.

The remaining deliveries will consist of 7,440 widebody planes, 1,810 regional jets and 925 freighters. About half of the new jet deliveries will replace older models, while the other half will expand airlines’ fleets, Boeing predicts.

“The end of the recovery has played out largely as we’ve expected, with a few different nuances and dynamics,” such as a drop in demand for regional jets compared to last year as interest in narrowbody planes grows, Hulst said.

Boeing also raised its industrywide passenger traffic growth rate slightly from 3.8% to 4%. And while the air cargo market is taking “a little bit of a breather,” the estimated 3% annual growth in trade over the next 20 years will provide a tailwind for future demand, Hulst said.

“I think we’ll again see how resilient the demand for air cargo is because it’s consistently around 3.5% to 4% growth,” he said.

Although Chinese air traffic remained depressed in 2022, Hulst said Boeing remains “very bullish” on China, which will account for 20% of the market, with the rest of Asia making up another 22% of demand.

Airbus, which published its own market forecast on June 14, also raised its delivery projections, estimating that 40,850 new jets would be handed over to customers through 2042.