US Strategic Deterrence: Why More Than 100 B-21 Bombers Are Needed for Alliance Commitments

Defense analysts are advocating for an increase in the number of B-21 bombers beyond the currently planned 100 units, emphasizing the aircraft’s versatility and crucial role in future conflicts. The B-21 bomber is poised to undertake a wide range of missions, including pathfinding through enemy air defenses, airfield attacks, minelaying, direct conventional attack, and nuclear deterrence. The multifaceted capabilities of the B-21 mean that the demand for these bombers could easily exceed the supply if the number is limited to the initially planned 100 units.

The Air Force initially stated a range of “80-100 bombers” for the B-21 program, a figure that was aimed at starting the program within a feasible budget. However, this number did not go through a standard calculation, and there is now a call to reassess this figure. Analysts suggest adding an attrition reserve for accidents and battle losses, a practice that was common in the past.

Moreover, the B-21 will be the only bomber capable of performing direct attacks on targets deep inside China and Russia. It could be used for various missions, including clearing a path through enemy air defenses for other aircraft or attacking Chinese ships in a Taiwan scenario. This diverse range of operations places a high demand on the number of available aircraft.

The flexibility of the B-21 also raises strategic considerations. In a conventional war, if there’s a threat of nuclear escalation, the U.S. might face dilemmas such as whether to pull aircraft out of theater to bolster nuclear deterrent posture or degrade the triad to increase operational tempo in conventional operations.

The B-21’s role in enhancing U.S. strategic deterrence and assuring allies is also critical. Given the U.S.’s commitments to defend allies like Australia, Japan, and South Korea with its nuclear deterrent, the number of strategic weapons available becomes vital. Insufficient numbers of strategic weapons to deter multiple nuclear powers could lead allies to pursue their own nuclear capabilities, complicating global security dynamics.

Thus, increasing the number of B-21s is seen as essential not only for meeting operational demands but also for maintaining the health of U.S. alliance relationships for the coming decades.

Sources: AirGuide Business airguide.info, bing.com, airandspaceforces.com, defensenews.com