Emerald Airlines Targets Profit in 2024 Amid Dublin Capacity Issues

Emerald Airlines, the operator of the Aer Lingus Regional franchise, is optimistic about achieving its first profitable year in 2024 after three years of operations. However, the airline has raised concerns that the ongoing capacity cap at Dublin Airport (DUB) could significantly hinder its growth. The carrier is even contemplating withdrawing one of its aircraft from the airport for the summer of 2025.

According to Conor McCarthy, founder and Executive Chairman of Emerald Airlines, the airline has experienced a robust summer 2024 season. The company forecasts an annual turnover of approximately €200 million ($222 million) for the year. Emerald Airlines expects to operate 40,000 flights and carry around 2.5 million passengers on routes connecting Ireland with the UK and various European destinations. McCarthy noted that the airline aims to achieve a profit in the “single million Euros” range.

Despite this positive outlook, the future remains uncertain for Emerald Airlines, particularly because a significant portion of its operations is based at Dublin Airport. The airport serves as a vital hub, facilitating connections from UK and Irish regional airports to Aer Lingus’s European and long-haul services.

Currently, Dublin Airport is limited to handling just 32 million passengers annually, a restriction stemming from a 2007 agreement that allowed for the construction of Terminal 2. This cap has come under intense scrutiny from various airlines, including Aer Lingus and Ryanair, which argue that it stifles growth and economic prosperity in Ireland. The rapid growth in air traffic since the pandemic has made this limitation increasingly contentious.

Even daa, the airport operator, has been lobbying the Irish government for a relaxation of these rules, but the government has so far remained firm in its stance against altering historic planning applications and approvals. Consequently, the Irish Aviation Authority has announced that the cap will remain in place for the upcoming winter 2024/25 season and will limit passenger movements to just 25.2 million during the summer of 2025. In response, Ryanair has decided to shift some of its scheduled and charter services to Belfast International Airport (BFS) in Northern Ireland.

McCarthy has expressed frustration with the Irish authorities’ reluctance to revisit the capacity cap. He argues that this limitation prevents smaller carriers like Emerald Airlines from achieving the critical mass needed at Dublin Airport and forces them to consider alternative operating locations.

Emerald Airlines currently operates a fleet of 18 aircraft, all 72-seat ATR72s, and had hoped to increase its presence at Dublin Airport for the summer of 2025. However, with the cap still in effect, the airline is now looking to redeploy one of its Dublin-based aircraft elsewhere. This decision means that rather than increasing its fleet at Dublin by two units as planned, Emerald Airlines may end up reducing its based aircraft by three.

McCarthy contends that any future growth permitted at Dublin Airport would not only benefit airlines like Emerald but also contribute positively to the airport, local employment, and the region’s business and tourism sectors. He believes the capacity limit is an “own goal” for Ireland, driving away both visitors and airlines.