UPS, FedEx Scramble as MD-11 Grounding Hits Peak Season Capacity

United Parcel Service (UPS) and FedEx are rushing to secure enough freighter capacity as an indefinite grounding of the MD-11—one of the backbone aircraft in their global fleets—continues into the peak holiday shipping season. The two carriers are facing mounting operational pressures and rising costs as investigators probe why the engine of a 34-year-old MD-11 cargo jet broke off during takeoff on Nov. 4, causing a fatal crash that killed 14 people.

The grounding has immediately tightened air-cargo capacity at the world’s two largest express carriers. UPS operates 26 MD-11s, accounting for roughly 9% of its jet fleet (excluding charters), while FedEx had 28 aircraft in service before the ban, about 4% of its operating fleet. Both companies rely heavily on the tri-jet—especially in the weeks leading up to Christmas, when air volume spikes.

“It’s creating a real capacity crunch for UPS and FedEx,” said Derek Lossing, founder of Cirrus Global Advisors. “They will adjust their networks, but at the end of the day, they were planning on flying those aircraft.”

A preliminary report from U.S. safety investigators on Nov. 20 revealed fatigue cracks in the engine pylon structure that connects the turbofan to the wing. The Federal Aviation Administration has ordered comprehensive inspections of all 167 parked aircraft worldwide, including models similar to the MD-11. Repair requirements and timelines remain uncertain.

“It’s going to take a while. This is an area that is not easily accessible,” said former FAA accident investigation chief Jeff Guzzetti.

Before the preliminary findings were released, analysts believed the operational impact might be manageable, given the carriers’ experience navigating disruptions caused by weather, geopolitical conflicts, and worldwide capacity swings. But the prolonged grounding has forced both UPS and FedEx to rely heavily on chartered cargo aircraft, a strategy that adds significant cost.

“Protecting service during peak comes at a cost,” wrote JPMorgan analyst Brian Ossenbeck in a client note, warning that some express shipments may face delays.

UPS declined to comment on potential additional peak-season expenses, saying it will provide updates in its January earnings report. FedEx said it is cooperating with Boeing and the FAA on the inspections but did not discuss network disruptions. During a Nov. 11 investor conference, FedEx CFO John Dietrich emphasized that grounded aircraft will return to service individually as they pass inspection. “It’s not like we’re waiting for the whole fleet to be inspected before concluding whether they can safely go back into service,” he said.

Logistics analyst Satish Jindel of ShipMatrix stressed that customers should not worry about holiday deliveries, noting that retailers already have inventory in place. “The public should not have any concern,” he said. “Let them shop all they want.”

Still, the grounding raises longer-term consequences. Both carriers were already planning gradual MD-11 retirements—FedEx expected to phase out its remaining 34 aircraft by 2032—and the crash accelerates questions about aging freighters. A prolonged ban could force UPS and FedEx to consider acquiring replacement aircraft, a challenging prospect in a market where passenger-to-freighter conversions are scarce and new Boeing and Airbus widebody freighters are backlogged.

MD-11 Active Fleet Snapshot (2025)

• FedEx Express: Operates the largest MD-11 fleet, with 74 aircraft, though many are being gradually retired and replaced by Boeing 767 and 777 freighters.
  Converted MD-11s from passenger use: American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Swissair, and KLM.
  FedEx also received some MD-11Fs directly from McDonnell Douglas as freighters.
  
• UPS Airlines: Operates 43 MD-11s, with 28 still active as of late 2025.
  Converted MD-11s from passenger use: Varig, Alitalia, China Eastern, and Thai Airways.
  UPS also acquired MD-11s from Lufthansa Cargo after their retirement in 2021.
  
• Western Global Airlines: Operates 17 MD-11s, but only 2 are currently active.
  Converted MD-11s from passenger use: Finnair, Japan Airlines, and Martinair.
  Many of these were acquired secondhand from other cargo operators like Lufthansa and World Airways.

FedEx is struggling to find replacements for its aging MD‑11 freighters, forcing the company to extend their service life. In 2025, FedEx pushed back the planned retirement of the MD‑11 fleet from 2028 to 2032, citing limited availability of new widebody aircraft and production backlogs at Boeing and Airbus. While it has firmed orders for eight new 777-200LRFs and added ATR 72‑600s for regional operations, the carrier has been unable to secure enough widebody capacity to cover its long‑haul needs. The recent grounding of MD‑11s after a fatal crash further exposed the fragility of its network, underscoring the urgency of renewal. With few new freighters available for near‑term delivery, FedEx has turned to acquiring a handful of used 777Fs and extending the life of its existing fleet, highlighting the broader challenge cargo airlines face in modernizing amid constrained supply.

The carriers are expecting some relief from new Boeing freighters scheduled for delivery over the next two years. Domestic shortfalls can be partly absorbed by their truck networks, but replacing widebody lift on long-haul international routes remains far more difficult.

FedEx and UPS still have a few dozen smaller Boeing jets in storage, though analysts say they cannot fully replace the heavy-lift capacity of the MD-11. “The MD-11 generally seems to get very high usage in the weeks before Christmas—more so than other aircraft types,” said Frederic Horst, managing director at Trade and Transport Group.

As the peak shipping season accelerates, both carriers are balancing service commitments, rising charter costs, and uncertainty over when their grounded workhorses will return to the skies.


Related News: https://airguide.info/?s=UPS, https://airguide.info/?s=fedex, https://airguide.info/?s=MD-11, https://airguide.info/category/air-travel-business/travel-health-security/

Sources: AirGuide Business airguide.info, bing.com, usatoday.com, ttnews.com