Airbus Raises 20-Year Delivery Forecast, Anticipating Recovery and Demand for Fuel-Efficient Aircraft

Airbus, the world’s largest jetmaker, has revised its 20-year forecast for new airplane deliveries on June 14, reflecting the expected recovery of the aviation industry after the COVID-19 pandemic and the increasing demand for more environmentally friendly and fuel-efficient aircraft.

The updated global market forecast predicts that airlines and lessors will order 40,850 new planes over the next two decades, surpassing the previous forecast of 39,490.

Approximately 80% of these deliveries are expected to be single-aisle jets like the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX, suitable for short- and medium-haul flights. Airbus estimates that 23,680 new planes will support growth, while 17,170 will replace older, less efficient aircraft. Additionally, Airbus has raised its forecast for freighter deliveries to 920 jets, recognizing the continuous growth of e-commerce and air cargo.

Airbus emphasizes that the primary driver for new plane orders will be the replacement of older aircraft, as airlines strive to reduce their carbon footprint and comply with the industry’s commitment to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

Currently, only 25% of the global aircraft fleet consists of the latest generation models, indicating the need for replacing 75% of the fleet with modern and sustainable alternatives.

While acknowledging that the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the supply chain and caused delays in new aircraft deliveries, Airbus remains optimistic about future growth. The company anticipates significant new plane deliveries in Asia, particularly in China and India, the fastest-growing aviation markets globally. China alone is projected to require 9,440 new planes by 2042. The Middle East is expected to maintain its position as the largest market for wide-body jets, with 8,220 deliveries anticipated over the next two decades.

Airbus’s revised forecast is based on the assumption of a robust economic recovery and resilient air travel demand post-pandemic. The company sees its market forecast as a valuable tool for shaping its product strategy and supporting long-term business planning, while providing insights to airlines, airports, investors, and other stakeholders in the aviation industry.