Aircraft Delivery Projections Fall Short of Net-Zero 2050 Goals, Report Warns
To achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, all commercial aircraft delivered post-2035 must operate with zero emissions throughout their lifecycle, according to a recent report by the International Council for Clean Transportation (ICCT). The nonprofit research organization reveals that current aircraft delivery projections are misaligned with the aviation industry’s ambitious net-zero targets.
The ICCT report highlights that meeting the net-zero goal will require a shift to 100% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) with minimal lifecycle CO2 emissions, the adoption of electric or hydrogen propulsion systems, a reduction in aircraft deliveries, or extensive carbon removal efforts to offset aviation emissions.
Based in Washington, DC, the ICCT’s analysis, derived from four industry decarbonization roadmaps, identifies a cumulative CO2 budget of 18.4 billion metric tons that the aviation sector can emit by 2050 while still meeting its net-zero objective. The report estimates that the current fleet of aircraft, active as of 2023, will contribute 9 billion tons of CO2 over their remaining operational lifetimes—consuming nearly half of this carbon budget.
Under baseline and optimistic scenarios, the report warns that new aircraft deliveries could exhaust the net-zero carbon budget by 2032 or 2037. “Post this period, any emissions from new conventional aircraft that are not countered by carbon dioxide removal (CDR) efforts would exceed the remaining carbon budget, thus conflicting with net-zero targets,” the report states. The required CDR could range from 22 billion tons in the baseline scenario to 5 billion tons in a more optimistic outlook.
According to Dan Rutherford, ICCT’s senior director of research, “Manufacturers must achieve net-zero emissions roughly 15 years before airlines are expected to meet their climate goals. All new aircraft delivered from 2035 onward must either utilize 100% SAF, hydrogen, or electricity with very low lifecycle emissions or have their emissions entirely removed through widespread CDR.”
The report models two scenarios: a conservative baseline where aircraft continue using fossil jet fuels, leading to a doubling of emissions by 2035 due to fleet expansion, and an optimistic scenario that assumes significant SAF uptake and fuel-efficiency improvements, cutting lifetime CO2 emissions by over 50% for new aircraft.
In the conservative model, aircraft delivered by 2030 would need to use a blend of SAF throughout their operational life. By 2050, these aircraft would need to utilize up to 70% SAF to align with the ReFuelEU mandate. Rutherford emphasizes, “SAF blends and fuel efficiency alone are not enough. We must go further. New aircraft delivered in 2035 or later must achieve net-zero emissions throughout their lifecycle.”
Given that hydrogen and electric propulsion will still represent a small fraction of the market by 2050, carbon dioxide removal remains a crucial component of the strategy. Rutherford notes that United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby is one of the few industry leaders openly discussing the necessity of CO2 removal, with others yet to address it.
Under the net-zero budget constraints, the ICCT estimates that manufacturers could deliver only around 24,000 conventional aircraft by 2042—approximately 62% of projected deliveries. The remaining 14,500 aircraft would need to be net-zero throughout their operational lives. In a more optimistic scenario, an additional 4,500 conventional aircraft could be delivered, but at least 10,000 net-zero aircraft, powered by hydrogen, electricity, or 100% SAF, would still be required by 2042.
The ICCT report advises manufacturers to ensure that all new aircraft can operate on 100% SAF starting in 2030, accelerate the development of zero-emission aircraft by 2035—particularly those powered by hydrogen—and set stringent targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions throughout the aircraft lifecycle.
Sources: AirGuide Business airguide.info, bing.com, aviationweek.com, airbus.com