Australia’s Flight Capacity Climbs Amid Global Demand
International flight capacity from Australia has reached a new milestone in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025, with departure seats surpassing 7.1 million. This represents a 6.1% year-on-year increase and exceeds pre-pandemic levels by 2.5%, signaling robust recovery and growing global demand. According to OAG Schedules Analyser data, this surge is driven by key international routes that are not only recovering from COVID-19 setbacks but also adapting to new market conditions.
Singapore has emerged as one of the strongest performers in this period. Data shows that capacity from Australia to Singapore rose nearly 9% compared to the same period in 2024, reaching over 1 million departure seats. This significant boost reflects both renewed traveler confidence and the strategic expansion of air services in one of Asia’s busiest aviation hubs.
Equally impressive is the growth in capacity to mainland China. With a near 10% increase in departure seats, this growth has been bolstered by China Southern Airlines’ resumption of seasonal Guangzhou-Perth flights. The lifting of COVID-19 travel restrictions in China has played a critical role in reinvigorating this route, helping restore connectivity between Australia and one of its largest trading partners.
Another major contributor to the capacity increase is the United Arab Emirates. Emirates has reinstated service to Adelaide and expanded capacity to Brisbane and Perth, resulting in a 15.6% rise in departure seats. This expansion highlights the UAE’s growing importance as a transit hub and a destination in its own right, further strengthening Australia’s links to the Middle East and beyond.
While international travel demand continues to thrive, Australia’s domestic aviation sector is facing contrasting challenges. OAG data indicates that there were 18.8 million domestic departure seats in Q1 2025—a 3.6% decline year-on-year and 2.7% lower than levels recorded in 2019. This decline comes amid capacity constraints and rising airfares, creating a challenging environment for domestic carriers.
In February, the Australian Competition & Consumer Commission (ACCC) released its latest domestic airline competition report, which highlighted shifting market dynamics following the collapse of Bonza in April 2024 and Rex’s exit from major city routes in July 2024. These developments have reduced connectivity, particularly to regional Australia, increasing reliance on the Qantas Group and Virgin Australia. Although Virgin Australia and Jetstar have capitalized on Rex’s exit by adding capacity on key routes such as Adelaide-Melbourne, the overall reduction in competition has led to higher airfares. In fact, on major city routes, the average real fare revenue per passenger rose 13.6% between July and December 2024—compared to a 10.7% increase over the same period in 2023.
The contrasting trends between international and domestic sectors underscore the complexity of Australia’s aviation landscape in 2025. As global travel rebounds and key markets expand, Australian carriers are poised to meet growing demand on international routes even as domestic services work to overcome operational constraints and rising costs.
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