Boeing Forecasts Quadrupling of Intra-African Passenger Traffic and Demand for 1,025 New Aircraft

Boeing and Ethiopian Airlines Announce Order for Five 777 Freighters (Boeing photo)

Boeing envisions a significant surge in intra-African passenger traffic, with projections indicating that it will more than quadruple over the next two decades. This robust growth is set to position Africa’s aviation sector among the world’s highest-growth regions. To accommodate this expansion, Boeing estimates a demand for 1,025 new airplanes within this timeframe.

The forecast for overall African air traffic growth is an impressive 7.4%, ranking as the third-highest among global regions. This growth rate surpasses the global average of 6.1%. These projections are integral to Boeing’s 2023 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), which offers a comprehensive long-term assessment of the worldwide demand for commercial aircraft and related services.

Boeing emphasizes that African carriers are strategically positioned to capitalize on the surge in intra-regional traffic. Efficiently connecting passengers and facilitating commerce within the continent are pivotal opportunities. Boeing’s Managing Director of Commercial Marketing for Middle East and Africa, Randy Heisey, highlights the expected increase in average aircraft size and seats per aircraft for the African fleet, with a particular demand for single-aisle aircraft like the Boeing 737 MAX.

African aviation has witnessed a robust recovery in 2023, driven by pent-up demand and economic growth, fueled in part by higher global commodity prices. Currently, African airline flights have surpassed pre-pandemic levels by 8%. Boeing attributes this recovery to Africa’s above-global-average long-term annual economic growth rate of 3.4%, coupled with urbanization trends and a growing middle-class population.

Boeing underscores the significance of economic and growth initiatives such as the African Continental Free Trade Area and the Single African Air Transport Market. These initiatives are expected to further stimulate trade and enhance intra-regional connectivity in Africa.

In summary, Boeing’s projections reveal a promising future for African aviation, with substantial growth in intra-African passenger traffic and a corresponding demand for new aircraft. This growth is underpinned by economic factors and regional initiatives that are set to shape the continent’s aviation landscape in the coming years.

The 2023 Africa CMO also includes these projections through 2042:

• With Europe remaining the most prominent origin/destination for travelers to and from Africa, airlines in the region will grow their fleets by 4.5% per year to accommodate passenger traffic growth.
• Single aisle jets are expected to account for more than 70% of commercial deliveries, with 730 new planes mainly supporting domestic and intra-regional demand. In addition, African carriers are estimated to need 275 new widebodies, including passenger and cargo models, to support long-haul routes and air freight growth.
• Approximately 90% of African jet deliveries are expected to serve fleet growth with more fuel-efficient models such as the 737 MAX, 777X and 787 Dreamliner, with nearly one in five deliveries replacing older airplanes.
• Estimated demand for aviation personnel will rise to 69,000 new professionals, including 21,000 pilots, 22,000 technicians and 26,000 cabin crew members.
• Commercial services opportunities such as supply chain, manufacturing, repair and overhaul are valued at $105 billion.

Explore the complete CMO here.