Boeing Predicts China to Double its Commercial Airplane Fleet by 2043
According to Boeing’s 2024 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) for China, the country is set to more than double its commercial airplane fleet by 2043. This significant expansion is driven by China’s burgeoning demand for both passenger and cargo air travel, propelled by its economic growth and the strategic expansion of airline networks within the country.
Darren Hulst, Boeing’s Vice President of Commercial Marketing, highlighted the dynamic growth of China’s commercial aviation sector. “China’s commercial aviation market for passengers and cargo continues to expand, driven by economic growth and airlines building their in-country networks,” Hulst explained. He emphasized that the data from the latest forecast indicates a robust demand in the region, necessitating a substantial increase in modern, fuel-efficient aircraft to accommodate this surge.
The Boeing CMO details that China’s commercial fleet is expected to grow at an annual rate of 4.1%, increasing from the current count of 4,345 airplanes to 9,740 by the year 2043. This growth in fleet size is complemented by a forecasted annual passenger traffic increase of 5.9%, a figure that surpasses the global average growth rate of 4.7%. This surge is largely attributed to the expansion of airline networks that connect major urban hubs with smaller, regional cities, facilitating greater accessibility and convenience for air travelers across China.
The China CMO forecast through 2043 also predicts:
- Air travel in China is forecast to become the world’s largest traffic flow, driving growth in the single-aisle fleet, which accounts for more than three-quarters of deliveries.
- China will have the world’s largest widebody fleet, with demand for 1,575 new widebody airplanes.
- China’s freighter fleet – including dedicated and converted models – will nearly triple with demand stimulated by its booming e-commerce sector.
Additional aviation industry growth potential:
- Chinese carriers will need aviation services worth $780 billion to support the growing fleet, including digital solutions, maintenance and modifications.
- Its airline industry will need to hire and train nearly 430,000 new personnel to support new pilots, maintenance technicians and cabin crew.
| New deliveries (2024-2043) | |
| Regional | 365 |
| Single Aisle | 6,720 |
| Widebody | 1,575 |
| Freighter | 170 |
| Total | 8,830 |
For more than 50 years, Boeing airplanes have been the mainstay of China’s civil aviation passenger and cargo transportation systems.
Boeing is the largest customer of China’s aviation manufacturing industry with more than 10,000 Boeing airplanes flying with China-made parts. Boeing activity in China contributes more than $1.5 billion annually in direct support of China’s economy, including suppliers, joint ventures, operations, training, and research and development investment.
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Sources: AirGuide Business airguide.info, bing.com, boeing.com