Boeing Projects 43,975 Airplane Deliveries Over Next 20 Years

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With air travel fully recovered and surpassing pre-pandemic demand, Boeing has projected a 3% increase in airplane deliveries over the next 20 years, anticipating nearly 44,000 new commercial airplanes by 2043. Leading into the Farnborough International Airshow, Boeing released its 2024 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), predicting that emerging markets and global single-aisle market demand will remain primary growth drivers for the industry.

Air Travel Demand and Industry Resilience

Air travel demand continues to outpace economic growth in an increasingly connected world. Four years after the pandemic grounded most of the global fleet, air traffic growth has returned to the long-term trend Boeing forecasted 20 years ago. According to the CMO, passenger air traffic will rise an average of 4.7% annually over the next two decades compared to 2023.

“This is a challenging and inspiring era for aviation. The return to more typical traffic growth shows how resilient our industry is, even as we all work through ongoing supply chain and production constraints amid other global challenges,” said Brad McMullen, Boeing Senior Vice President of Commercial Sales and Marketing.

CMO Forecast Highlights Through 2043

  • Global Commercial Fleet Growth: Projected to grow 3.2% annually, more slowly than air traffic as airlines boost productivity by increasing load factors and using airplanes more hours per day.
  • Air Cargo Fleet Expansion: The air cargo fleet, known for speed and reliability, will increase by two-thirds by 2043 to support 4.1% annual air cargo traffic growth.
  • Air Travel Trends:
    • The average global airline fare is about the same as it was 20 years ago, despite overall consumer prices doubling.
    • The number of global routes served by commercial airlines has returned to 2019 levels, with nearly 20% being new routes, illustrating aviation’s adaptability in a dynamic market.

Key Growth Drivers

  • Regional Growth:
    • South Asia passenger traffic will increase by 7.4%, followed by Southeast Asia (7.2%) and Africa (6.4%), as emerging markets return to historical growth trends.
    • Eurasia is projected to lead all markets with the most airplane deliveries (22% of total), followed by North America (20%) and China (20%).
  • Fleet Composition:
    • Single-aisle airplanes will make up 71% of the 2043 fleet after 33,380 new deliveries, serving short- to medium-haul routes with versatility.
    • The global widebody fleet will more than double, with twin-aisles comprising 44% of the Middle East fleet.

Rising Demand for Services

Boeing expects demand for commercial services valued at $4.4 trillion, driven by maintenance, modification options, and digital solutions that increase efficiency. The commercial aviation industry will require nearly 2.4 million new personnel, including pilots, maintenance technicians, and cabin crew, to support this expansion.

“As airlines respond to robust passenger demand, the services market continues to expand, not only as a result of fleet growth but also with an increased focus on reducing operating costs and deploying efficient and sustainable solutions,” said Dan Abraham, Senior Vice President of Boeing Global Services Commercial Sales and Marketing.

New Deliveries (2024-2043)

  • Regional Jet: 1,525
  • Single Aisle: 33,380
  • Widebody: 8,065
  • Freighter: 1,005
  • Total: 43,975

Boeing has published the CMO annually since 1961. As the longest-running forecast of its kind, the CMO is regarded as the most comprehensive analysis of the commercial aviation industry. The complete outlook is available at boeing.com/cmo.

*Boeing will release its complete Pilot and Technician Outlook on July 22.

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Sources: AirGuide Business airguide.info, bing.com, boeing.com

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