Booming narrowbody demand: Embraer’s 20-year Market Outlook

At this week’s Farnborough Airshow, Embraer released its latest Market Outlook for the sub-150 seat commercial aircraft segment. The report presents global and regional analyses and trends over the next 20 years that will influence the demand for new jets and turboprops through 2041.

The report has several key points for this major aircraft sector, which include:

Demand growth and recovery
Embraer’s analysis has found that worldwide demand for air travel, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK) will grow 3.2% annually (CAGR) over the next two decades. This growth is slightly less than the 3.3% rate forecast in last year’s report, reflecting a near-term deceleration of the global economy, follow-on effects from the pandemic, and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Embraer expects RPKs to return to 2019 levels by 2024.

Digitalisation and regionalisation
The trends to increased digitalisation, such as the pandemic-driven growth in working from home and the use of tools such as video-conferencing, as well as regionalisation (re-shoring to localise production) will continue, according to the market outlook. These factors will drive demand for sub-150 seat aircraft.

The growth in e-commerce post-pandemic is also opening new markets for smaller-capacity all-cargo jet aircraft and driving demand for passenger-to-freighter conversions.

Embraer’s report states that matching capacity to demand is the most sustainable way to capture growth opportunities in the post-pandemic world, and that new ‘green’ technologies tend to focus on smaller-capacity aircraft, in which innovations are refined before being introduced on larger aircraft platforms. Smaller airplanes are a key element in enhancing both the sustainability of air travel and its connectivity.

New aircraft deliveries, by the numbers
Global demand for new aircraft up to 150 seats: 10,950 units (8,670 jets and 2,280 turboprops)

Market value of all new aircraft: US$650 billion

Annual RPK growth rate – ranked by region

• 4.3% Asia Pacific (includes China)

• 4.0% Latin America

• 3.8% Africa

• 3.2% Global Average

• 3.2% Middle East

• 2.3% Europe

• 2.0% North America

RPK share by end of 2041:

• 42% Asia Pacific

• 38% Europe + North America

Jet deliveries – 8,670 (% share)

• 2,740 North America (31.6%)

• 2,230 Asia Pacific (25.7%)

• 2,320 Europe & CIS (26.8%)

• 750 Latin America (8.7%)

• 330 Middle East (3.8%)

• 300 Africa (3.5%)

Turboprop deliveries – 2,280 (% share)

• 960 Asia Pacific (42.1%)

• 500 Europe & CIS (21.9%)

• 400 North America (17.5%)

• 200 Africa (8.8%)

• 180 Latin America (7.9%)

• 40 Middle East (1.8%)

The full 2022 Embraer Market Outlook, including analysis and regional synopses for each of the six world regions, is available at www.embraermarketoutlook2022.com