China to account for more than half of Asia-Pacific pilot demand by 2038

An estimated 645,000 new pilots will be needed to meet global demand by 2038, according to Boeing. The Asia-Pacific region will account for 38% of global requirements, with China, in particular, accounting for more than half of the region’s appetite. Here we explore global pilot forecasts, growth drivers, and potential headwinds facing the industry.

According to Boeing’s Pilot & Technician Outlook for 2019 to 2038, over 800,000 civil aviation pilots will be required over the 20-year period. Of the estimated 804,000 pilots, the vast majority, 645,000, could be needed in the commercial sector.

Globally, the Asia-Pacific region will drive most commercial demand (38% or 244,000), followed by North America (20.5% or 131,000) and then Europe (18.4% or 118,000).

Within the APAC region, China is set to account for more than half of local appetite, demanding up to 124,000 new commercial pilots by 2038. The PRC could need more pilots than all of Europe or North America or the Middle East, Latin America, Africa, and Russia/ Central Asia combined.

Boeing’s analysis compares well to other sources. Airbus, for one, estimates that the APAC region will need 219,000 pilots by 2037.

This past June, the creation of three new South Korean airlines was attributed to a localized pilot shortage. Similarly, rumors out of India suggested that Indigo canceled as many as 75 flights due to a lack of aviators this past February.

As a response to international scarcity, select airlines in China and the Middle East are offering pilots tax-free salaries in excess of US$300,000 per year, alongside additional incentives.

Should the pilot shortage be exacerbated, increased demand for pilots could lead to an international “pay-war”. This would effectively price out more precarious airlines and, in turn, pass additional costs on to consumers. Thus, plausibly, dampening air travel demand.

Taken together, China is likely to set to become the world’s leading pilot market. That said, however, political, economic, and industry-specific factors could influence the extent of China’s future pilot needs.