Duopoly Delays: Aircraft Delivery Woes Impact Airlines
Airbus and Boeing, controlling over 90% of the global commercial aircraft market, are still grappling with significant delivery delays that are impacting airline expansion plans and passenger fares. Last year, Boeing delivered only 348 jets, leaving a backlog of 5,595 unfilled orders, while Airbus fulfilled 776 orders—four below its official target. Despite these challenges, Airbus’ order backlog remains 43% higher than Boeing’s, highlighting the immense pressure on both manufacturers to scale up capacity.
With the International Air Transport Association (IATA) projecting over 4 billion passengers in 2025, timely aircraft deliveries are mission critical for airlines worldwide. Yet, the delays in new aircraft deliveries are bad news for carriers. The shortfall in new planes not only curtails expansion plans but also forces airlines to rely on older aircraft or leasing options to meet burgeoning demand, particularly during peak seasons. This constrained supply has contributed to higher fares, affecting the bottom line for both airlines and their passengers.
The root causes of these delivery delays can be traced back to the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic. Both Airbus and Boeing continue to face production constraints largely due to pandemic-induced supply chain disruptions. These issues have been compounded by ongoing geopolitical tensions and shortages of raw materials. Engine manufacturers, too, have been affected; for example, Pratt & Whitney’s challenges have delayed the rollout of new engine models such as the Neo series. Wizz Air has already warned that it expects an average of 40 aircraft to be grounded throughout 2025 due to engine problems—a scenario that could spell significant financial loss for any carrier.
Airlines facing these delivery delays are feeling the pinch. Consider a hypothetical airline waiting for 10 jets, each expected to generate roughly $1 million in monthly revenue. A six-month delay could mean $60 million in lost revenue, not to mention the additional costs associated with disrupted schedules, increased maintenance for aging fleets, and reduced capacity. When multiplied over a five-year delay, these costs could easily exceed half a billion dollars for a single carrier.
As carriers scramble to meet demand, especially during the summer travel season, many are turning to alternative solutions. Airlines are increasingly seeking older aircraft on lease or utilizing the wet leasing market—where ACMI providers like Avia Solutions Group offer short-term capacity solutions—to fill the gap. These measures, however, are only temporary fixes to the underlying supply challenges.
Looking ahead, there is cautious optimism that the situation will stabilize by the end of the decade. Industry experts believe that as supply chain issues are resolved and both manufacturers ramp up their workforces and production capacities, the backlogs will gradually diminish. Moreover, potential market disruptions from competitors such as Embraer and COMAC could further alter the landscape, particularly if global trends towards deglobalization spur China and its allies to favor COMAC.
For now, airlines continue to navigate a challenging environment marked by delays and rising costs. Until Airbus and Boeing can deliver on their increased capacity targets, carriers will remain dependent on leasing older jets and ACMI solutions to meet demand. With investments in supply chain resilience and production enhancements expected to yield improvements by 2030, the industry remains hopeful for a return to more predictable and timely aircraft deliveries in the coming years.
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