Embraer gives market outlook for the next 20 years
Embraer has published its 20-year Market Outlook for commercial aircraft deliveries through 2042. The outlook identifies the demand for new jet and turboprop aircraft with up to 150 seats over the next two decades and also presents analysis of global influences and trends in six world regions.
Among the findings, Embraer predicts that world passenger traffic, measured in revenue passenger kilometres, is expected to return to 2019 levels by 2024 as a result of a prolonged pandemic recovery, geopolitics, and changes in industry dynamics. Global RPKs are expected to grow 3.2% annually through 2042.
Introducing the outlook at Paris Air Show, Arjan Meijer, president and CEO of Embraer Commercial Aviation, highlighted the importance of aircraft in the up-to-150 seat category to maintain airline network connectivity. He also noted how remote working and a ‘greening’ industry will affect the way we will travel and the demand for new aircraft.
The report cites three key trends shaping future demand for travel and aircraft:
Fragmentation of the global economy – regionalisation of businesses and supply chains will alter how goods and people move
Social revolution – a remote workforce will prompt air service in new communities
Market effects of sustainability – the drive to sustainability will affect demand, as will the cost of new fuels and new technology, which is likely to increase the cost of flying over time.
Other trends highlighted include the need for fleet flexibility to cope with an uncertain and changing demand, mostly through narrow-body complementation, and the growing popularity of crossover narrow-body all-cargo jets.
Key figures from the Embraer 20-Year Commercial Market Outlook:
Global demand for new aircraft up to 150 seats: 11,000 units (8,790 jets, 2,210 turboprops)
Market value of all new aircraft: US$ 650 billion
Annual RPK regional growth rate – ranked:
4.4% Asia Pacific (includes China)
4.1% Latin America
3.7% Africa
3.2% Middle East
2.2% North America
2.0% Europe/CIS
RPK share by the end of 2042:
42% Asia Pacific
38% Europe + North America
Jet deliveries – 8,790 (% share) – by region:
2,690 North America (30.6%)
2,270 Asia Pacific (25.8%)
2,390 Europe/CIS (27.2%)
780 Latin America (8.9%)
340 Middle East (3.9%)
320 Africa (3.6%)
Turboprop deliveries – 2,210 (% share) – by region
910 Asia Pacific (41.0%)
450 Europe/CIS (20.2%)
410 North America (18.5%)
210 Africa (9.5%)
180 Latin America (8.1%)
50 Middle East (2.7%)
The full version of the 2023 Market Outlook, including analysis and regional synopses for each of the six world regions, can be accessed on the Embraer website.