Eurocontrol sates that war and rising costs to delay European air traffic recovery

Recovery of air traffic levels in Europe to pre-pandemic levels will take longer than expected, according to a fresh forecast from network manager Eurocontrol.

The war in Ukraine, the resulting economic fallout and the problems the aviation industry had this summer with meeting the bounceback in travel after the pandemic are all taking their toll.

Eurocontrol therefore expects traffic to recover to 2019 levels in 2025, not 2024, as it previously predicted.

“We have seen strong demand this summer, but this has been held back, both by the capacity of the sector to handle the rapid growth and also by the impact of the war in Ukraine,” Eurocontrol Director General Eamonn Brennan commented in a statement on October 17, 2022.

Eurocontrol expects to see 9.3 million flights in 2022, 49% more than in 2021, but 16% below 2019 levels. In June, before the chaotic summer season got underway, its prediction was for 9.5 million flights this year.

Brennan added: “We are optimistic about traffic recovering to around 92% of 2019 levels next year. But there are still significant downside risks that could affect the recovery”.

What are the factors affecting recovery?
With Russia airspace shut off to EU carriers and Ukrainian airspace closed due to the war, airlines have been forced to reroute flights, notably to the south of the region. This has resulted in longer flight times and more fuel burn, which means higher costs for airlines.