European Airlines Cut Back on China Flights Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Rodrigue, currently the regional sales manager for Asia Pacific at BAA Training Vietnam, reflects on the evolving landscape of air travel between Europe and Asia. While intercontinental flights are recovering to pre-COVID levels, European airlines are quietly reducing flight frequencies to Greater China, largely driven by geopolitical factors.

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the subsequent closure of Russian airspace to European carriers, the dynamics of flights between Europe and Asia have shifted. European airlines must reroute to avoid Russian and Belarusian airspace, unlike Chinese carriers, which continue to operate freely through these regions. This advantage significantly reduces travel times and operational costs for Chinese airlines, such as the notable time difference between China Southern Airlines and British Airways on routes to London.

The pressure on European carriers is compounded by the increasing subsidies received by Chinese airlines from local governments, making it harder for European airlines to compete on price. As a result, the share of Chinese airlines’ flights to Europe is expected to rise from 56% in 2019 to 82%, with many new routes opening from second-tier cities in China.

While the Russian invasion has played a pivotal role in this shift, underlying tensions have been building for years due to strained relations between the West and China, particularly since the elections of Xi Jinping and Donald Trump. The COVID-19 pandemic further underscored Europe’s economic dependency on China, prompting a reevaluation of supply chains and a move towards diversification.

With the demand for travel to China diminishing—evident in Qantas suspending its Sydney-Shanghai route due to low demand—European carriers are reallocating capacity to more profitable markets. In 2019, approximately 50 million visitors traveled to China, but only 17 million have done so this year, compounded by China’s significant economic slowdown.

European airlines are increasingly withdrawing from the Chinese market. Carriers like British Airways, Finnair, LOT Polish Airlines, Lufthansa, Qantas, SAS Scandinavian, and Virgin Atlantic have either suspended or significantly cut flights to China. Air France is lobbying for a tax on Chinese carriers to level the playing field, but so far without success.

With geopolitical tensions and economic challenges showing no signs of abating, this trend could represent a “new normal” for European airlines’ operations to China. The political relationship between China and Russia may influence the future of international travel to China, as the country’s stance could lead to prolonged restrictions.

To adapt, European airlines might leverage partnerships with Chinese carriers. For example, Lufthansa, having exited the Frankfurt-Beijing market, is relying on its joint venture with Air China to serve its customers.

Emerging Asian markets like India, Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia are seeing high demand, allowing European airlines to redeploy capacity away from China. Additionally, mature markets such as Japan, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan are experiencing a rebound in demand, presenting opportunities for European carriers to rebalance their networks and mitigate risks associated with the Chinese market.

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