Europe’s Uneven Recovery and Future Growth
At Routes Europe 2025 in Seville, Spain, Michael Stanton-Geddes, director of economics and competition at ACI Europe, outlined the current state of European aviation recovery, emphasizing that airports across the continent have collectively surpassed pre-pandemic passenger traffic levels for the first time. In 2024, European airports handled 2.5 billion passengers, a milestone that signals a strong rebound in overall traffic. However, Stanton-Geddes cautioned that the recovery has been uneven, with only about half of the countries exceeding their 2019 traffic volumes. He pointed out that while tourism-oriented nations such as Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Poland have experienced robust growth, other regions continue to struggle. For example, several airports in Scandinavian countries and France remain up to 40 percent below their pre-COVID numbers, a disparity that he attributes largely to high sectoral taxes imposed on aviation in those countries.
Stanton-Geddes explained that the uneven recovery in air travel is not solely a matter of market forces but also reflects the impact of supportive policies and political will. He noted that countries with strong tourism markets and emerging leisure travel demand have fared much better, citing Albania as one of the out-performers in the emerging aviation markets. In contrast, where high taxes and regulatory burdens remain in place, airports are finding it difficult to regain the momentum experienced before the pandemic. The challenges are compounded for smaller airports, where the use of regional jets now accounts for less than 5 percent of European departures. This lack of connectivity poses a significant hurdle, limiting options for travelers on thinner routes.
Seasonal patterns have begun to normalize as well. The traditional summer peaks in July and August have returned, although airfares have increased by more than 30 percent compared to historical levels. This surge in prices is sustained by both low-cost carriers and international airlines leveraging their pricing power as they introduce more capacity to meet the rebounding demand. Moreover, longer-haul travel outside the continent has seen remarkable growth, with inter-European routes growing by about 4 percent while demand for flights outside Europe is up nearly 18 percent. Markets in Africa and the Asia-Pacific region are particularly strong, underscoring the increasing appetite for global connectivity.
Despite ongoing global uncertainties ranging from geopolitical tensions to weakening consumer confidence, Stanton-Geddes remains cautiously optimistic. He highlighted that, in response to these challenges, consumers are actively protecting their travel budgets, which in turn is driving interest in secondary and emerging destinations. He also noted that airfares appear to be stabilizing, and there is potential for carriers to lower prices soon as competitive pressures mount. However, he warned that the industry’s path to decarbonization could be jeopardized by the current tax regimes imposed by governments. According to Stanton-Geddes, these high taxes are starving the aviation industry of the capital needed to invest in decarbonization initiatives. He urged governments to work collaboratively with the air transport industry, as aviation plays a critical role in enabling global economic growth.
Overall, while the recovery in European air travel is robust, it faces ongoing challenges that require coordinated policy responses and strategic investments. As airports and airlines continue to navigate this new landscape, the future of the industry will depend on a balanced approach that supports growth, improves connectivity, and advances sustainability for generations to come.
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