Global Passenger Fleet Expected to Nearly Double by 2042
737MAX; 737MAX-8: TakeOff from Renton Field; 2016-01-29; K66500-01
Avolon, the international aircraft leasing company, has released a report projecting that the global commercial passenger aviation fleet will nearly double by 2042, reaching 46,880 aircraft—a 94% growth. The report, titled “Return to Growth,” attributes this expansion to the sustained recovery of air travel demand following Covid-19 restrictions.
The forecast also highlights the need for over US$4 trillion in financing to support the delivery of approximately 44,300 new commercial aircraft over the next two decades, offering leasing companies an opportunity to collaborate with airlines in financing their growth plans. Additionally, the surge in new aircraft presents a significant opportunity for the aircraft interiors sector, with various suppliers well-positioned for continued growth.
However, the report acknowledges the challenge of decoupling growth from environmental impact, emphasizing the importance of transitioning to low-emission aircraft, increasing sustainable aviation fuel production, and exploring alternative energy sources. Avolon expects new middle-class consumers, particularly in India, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, to drive the industry’s growth, while regions such as North America and Europe will continue to expand at a more moderate pace.
The forecast also indicates that narrowbody aircraft will experience greater growth (112%) compared to widebody aircraft (97%), and the global fleet will predominantly consist of fuel-efficient aircraft (95%) by 2042. Airbus is expected to maintain a strong market position in the narrowbody segment, while Boeing will lead the widebody segment.
The report emphasizes that overcoming supply constraints and fulfilling sustainability commitments will be crucial for the industry’s long-term success and the transition to a net-zero future. Trillions of dollars in new investments will be required to fund fleet renewal, sustainable aviation fuel production, and the development of transformative aircraft designs. Lessors will play a critical role in the industry’s future success and net-zero transition.
“The human desire to connect with friends and family, and to do business remains undiminished, as shown by the post-pandemic recovery in air travel,” said Andy Cronin, CEO of Avolon. “Emerging markets and their growing middle class underpin our forecast for continued expansion of the global fleet.”
Jim Morrison, chief risk officer at Avolon and co-author of the report, added: “Whilst the pace of growth in demand for travel will moderate, increasing GDP per capita will drive the global fleet to nearly double by 2042. Delivering on sustainability commitments is an imperative to secure aviation’s continued growth. Fleet renewal, scaling sustainable aviation fuel production, and the development of transformational new aircraft designs will be capital intensive. Lessors will play a critical role in the industry’s future success and net-zero transition.”