New MIT Study Shows Air Travel Safety Continues to Improve, But Challenges Remain
Flying can be a nerve-wracking experience for many, but a new study released on Thursday brings reassuring news: commercial air travel is safer than ever, with the risk of death halving every decade. The study, conducted by researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), found that the fatality rate has significantly decreased over time, reflecting ongoing improvements in aviation safety.
Impressive Safety Gains Over Time
According to the research published in the Journal of Air Transport Management, the global fatality rate for commercial air travel dropped to 1 per every 13.7 million passenger boardings during the 2018-2022 period. This marks a significant improvement from the 1 per 7.9 million boardings recorded in the 2008-2017 timeframe. The progress is even more striking when compared to the early days of commercial aviation, where the fatality rate was 1 per 350,000 boardings between 1968 and 1977.
“Aviation safety continues to get better,” said MIT professor Arnold Barnett, co-author of the study. He highlighted that the likelihood of dying in a commercial air accident “continues to go down by a factor of two every decade,” drawing a parallel to Moore’s Law, which predicts the doubling of computing power every 18 months.
The study also traced the decline in risk over several decades:
- From 1978-1987, the risk was 1 per 750,000 boardings.
- From 1988-1997, it improved to 1 per 1.3 million boardings.
- From 1998-2007, it improved to 1 per 7.9 million boardings.
- From 2018-2022, the risk further decreased to 1 per 13.7 million boardings.
The last major commercial airline disaster in the United States occurred in 2009, when Colgan Air flight 3407 crashed, resulting in 50 fatalities.
Global Disparities in Air Safety
While the overall trend in aviation safety is positive, the study warns that progress is not guaranteed. Recent incidents, such as near-collisions on U.S. runways and a door plug coming off mid-flight on an Alaska Airlines Boeing 737-9, highlight the ongoing challenges in maintaining and improving safety standards.
The study also reveals significant global disparities in air safety, dividing countries into three tiers based on their safety records:
- Tier One: This group includes the United States, European Union countries, and other European nations like Norway, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. Australia, Canada, China, Israel, Japan, and New Zealand are also in this top tier, reflecting the highest standards of aviation safety.
- Tier Two: Countries in this category include Brazil, Hong Kong, India, Malaysia, Mexico, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, and the United Arab Emirates, among others. While these nations have strong safety records, they do not yet match the top tier.
- Tier Three: The remaining countries fall into this category, where the risk of dying in air travel is still higher. However, the study notes that even in these regions, air travel fatalities per boardings were roughly halved during the 2018-2022 period, signaling progress.
The MIT study provides a comprehensive look at the continued improvements in aviation safety, with the risk of fatalities in air travel consistently declining over the decades. However, the report also emphasizes the importance of ongoing vigilance and the need to address global disparities in safety standards. As the aviation industry continues to evolve, maintaining and enhancing safety practices will be crucial in ensuring that air travel remains one of the safest modes of transportation.
Sources: AirGuide Business airguide.info, bing.com, sciencealert.com