Pakistan’s Airspace Closure Forces India Airlines to Reroute Flights
India’s major carriers are rerouting numerous international services after Pakistan closed its airspace to Indian airlines, a move that takes immediate effect and disrupts dozens of routes to Europe, North America, Central Asia and the Middle East. Air India, IndiGo, Akasa Air and SpiceJet must now fly longer detours around Pakistani airspace, increasing fuel costs and in some cases requiring unscheduled refueling stops or the suspension of service on less profitable routes.
IndiGo estimates that roughly 50 of its international routes will be affected, and it has already temporarily suspended flights to Almaty, Kazakhstan and Tashkent, Uzbekistan. Air India confirmed that some flights to and from North America, Europe and the Middle East will follow extended tracks, though it did not specify how many routes this will impact. In recent weeks, Air India’s flight AI1101 from New Delhi to New York diverted first to Vienna and then to Copenhagen for refueling, arriving four to six hours later than normal.
The airspace closure is the latest escalation in tit-for-tat tensions between the nuclear-armed neighbors, sparked by the killing of 26 tourists in India-administered Kashmir, which India has blamed on militants based in Pakistan. Islamabad has called for a neutral investigation into the attack and denied any militant involvement, but the response has included diplomatic expulsions and now aviation restrictions.
For Indian carriers, the detours add hundreds of miles to westbound sectors. Flights over Pakistan typically save an hour or more on the way to Europe or the Gulf. Without access, airlines must swing north over Afghanistan and Central Asia or head south over the Arabian Sea before turning northwest, adding both time and cost. Some services may no longer be economically viable without the shorter over-Pakistan corridor.
Despite the higher operating expenses, passengers may see only modest increases in airfares. Aviation analyst John Grant of OAG says that while fuel surcharges may rise, the limited scale and temporary nature of the airspace closure mean “these types of disruptions are unlikely to lead to a major increase in ticket prices.” In 2019, Pakistan’s five-month ban on Indian carriers cost them roughly 7 billion rupees ($82 million) without triggering dramatic fare hikes.
India’s international outbound market is heavily weighted toward the Middle East, which accounted for nearly half of all departures in 2023. Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha are critical hubs for Indian migrant workers and leisure travelers alike, and routes to the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Qatar typically overfly Pakistan. Airlines face the challenge of preserving those high-frequency networks while absorbing additional costs or redirecting capacity to unaffected markets.
Some carriers may elect to deepen partnerships or codeshares to maintain service levels without shouldering the full burden of longer routings. Air India, with over 500 monthly flights to Europe and North America, can leverage its alliance ties to reroute passengers on partner airlines. Low-cost carriers such as IndiGo may be more vulnerable, as narrow profit margins leave less room to offset surcharges.
In the longer term, airlines will monitor the diplomatic situation closely and adjust schedules as soon as Pakistani airspace reopens. Until then, operational teams will focus on optimizing fuel loads, negotiating overflight fees on alternative routes and reevaluating less profitable services. For travelers, the key takeaway is to expect longer flight times and potential schedule changes, but not necessarily sharp fare increases, as carriers manage through this period of geopolitical tension.
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Sources: AirGuide Business airguide.info, bing.com, cnbc.com