What to expect from European aerospace giant Airbus in 2023

Let’s take a look at the horizon and see what is in store for the European aerospace giant in the 12 months ahead. European aerospace giant Airbus is leaving an eventful year behind – and looking ahead to a new one still characterized by some uncertainty but also a whole heap of innovation and other new developments.

The 12 months ahead for Airbus: developments in decarbonization and new aircraft technology, production rates, the implementation of the world’s largest aircraft side cargo door, and the next chapter in the bitter A350 feud with Qatar Airways.

New technology in support of decarbonizing aerospace
Airbus has long prided itself on being a pioneer in aviation and takes great effort to maintain and cultivate the pioneering spirit despite having attained and established leadership as one of the aerospace industry’s two behemoths. And as aviation readies itself for the greatest transitional challenge it has ever faced (apart from actually taking off from the ground for the first time), Airbus, it would seem, is doing its best to live up to those intentions.

The introduction of new propulsion technology is not something that happens overnight. As such, we will not see the Airbus A380 MSN001 multi-modal testbed aircraft launched into the skies with a hydrogen engine mounted to the fuselage in 2023 (despite the recent reveal of a hydrogen-electric fuel cell engine as a parallel pathway to direct combustion). However, Airbus will take several incremental and crucial steps on the way there.

These include the launch of a series of tests across novel propulsion, including hydrogen and electric, and supporting technologies such as cryogenic superconductors in collaboration with CERN. The first test results of the SCALE (Super-Conductor for Aviation with Low Emissions) demonstrator are expected at the end of 2023 and will be the first step towards a long-term collaboration that will hopefully pave the way to superconducting power distribution for aircraft. In turn, this could revolutionize efficiency in airborne electric propulsion systems.

Airbus has also intensified its efforts to obtain certification for a broad range of its products to operate on 100% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). In November 2022, the manufacturer operated an A330MRTT – the military variant of the Airbus A330 commercial jetliner – on 100% SAF in both engines in collaboration with the UK Royal Air Force and Rolls-Royce.

Jesus Ruiz, experimental test pilot and Captain of the flight, commented on the results, “From the crew perspective, the SAF operation was ‘transparent’, meaning that no differences were observed operationally. The Test Plan was exhaustive and robust and has allowed us to compare SAF with JET1 culminating in a flight without a single drop of fossil fuel. Teamwork was a key contributor, harmonising experience from Airbus, Rolls-Royce and the RAF.”

The manufacturer has previously operated an A380 with one engine running on 100% SAF, as well as an A350 and an A319neo. With such a successful outcome with two engines from the RAF test, we are bound to see more 100% SAF tests in 2023 – most likely involving Airbus’ commercial line of products, as well as helicopters. Especially since Virgin Atlantic intends to operate a Boeing 787 across the Atlantic on 100% SAF this year.

Toward the end of 2022, Airbus also announced it had signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with leading sustainable fuel provider Neste to further work on the technical aspects of the challenge to reach the 100% SAF certification and, as such, jointly advance the production and uptake. What concrete steps this will mean will surely crystalize as the year unfolds.

A321XLR
Airbus’ extra long-range narrowbody flew for the first time in June 2022, and the test campaign now comprises three aircraft. As late as December, Airbus put the narrowbody jet through its paces with a 13-hour flight over Europe. The plane was originally intended to have entered service by now, but the project, like many other aircraft developments, has been delayed. While it has gotten some way on the path to certification, regulators are unconvinced about Airbus’ proposed solution for the extra fuel tank needed to give the jet its intended “game-changing” range of 4,700 NM (8,704 km).

Both the FAA and EASA are insisting that design changes be made to the Rear Center Tank (RCT) of the A321XLR, lest it potentially poses a fire hazard in the event of an otherwise survivable crash. In a document from December 8, EASA said that the tank should be put in a position “that is not likely to fail or rupture in a survivable crash condition exceeding the applicable existing emergency landing conditions.”

The agency further recommended that Airbus consider including some additional fuselage design features that would mitigate the effects of potential impact and scraping. As such, we are likely to see the aerospace giant hunker down and get to work on a slightly different version of the A321XLR than it had originally intended, one that could potentially cost some of the range announced in a bid to gain regulatory approval.

However, industry sources familiar with the process say that any design changes in search of regulatory approval would not detrimentally impact the unique characteristics of the much-awaited game-changer single-aisle jet. First deliveries are now expected to take place in 2024.

Aircraft production rates
In early December, Airbus stated it was no longer maintaining the predicted aircraft delivery target for 2022. However, production will see a ramp-up in 2023. This includes increasing the output for, in the words of former Chief Commercial Officer John Leahy, “nice little aircraft,” the A220.

Over the next couple of years, the manufacturer will increase the production rate for the inherited Bombardier C-series jet to 14 aircraft per month – ten of which will be produced on parallel lines in Mirabel, Quebec. This is part of an efficiency and cost-cutting drive for the A220, which, despite its popularity and an orderbook for close to 800 units, has failed to reach profitability yet.

Meanwhile, the first half of 2023 will see Airbus break ground on a new 350,000-square-foot facility in Mobile for an additional final assembly line for the A320 family. Planes are expected to roll out of the building for the first time in 2025. The expansion of Airbus’ Alabama site will also feature a new paint shop, and there will be further modifications to the main hangar of the location.

Airbus’ FAL in Tianjin, China, has become A321 compatible and began assembling the first larger sibling of the A320 family in November 2022. The first A321 to be assembled in Tianjin is expected to be handed over to its customer airline during the first quarter of 2023.

All of Airbus’ A320 FALs globally can now also assemble the longer range, higher capacity A321. This is part of an industrial strategy to de-risk the production ramp-up and to meet the rising share of A321 production.

Supply chain issues have caused delays in the delivery from both Boeing and Airbus over the past year, and are forcing the latter to delay the ramp-up of its A320neo output by about six months. This means that instead of rolling them out at a rate of 65 aircraft per month from next summer, this figure will be reached instead in early 2024. Airbus is also reportedly delaying the delivery of some 2023 A320neo deliveries as a result of the global shortages.

However, despite the momentary delays in increasing production, the company remains confident it will hit a delivery rate of 65 A320 family jets per month in 2024, increasing to 75 by 2025.

Aircraft manufacturers have seen orders begin to pour in again for single-aisle jets following the lull of the pandemic. Larger jets have, unsurprisingly, not seen the same bounce-back in demand. Meanwhile, sources familiar with the matter are expecting to see a return to a more normal state of affairs for widebody orders in 2023 through 2024. The latest information is still that Airbus will increase its A350 production from about five currently to six in early 2023.

Qatar Airways A350 litigation
Speaking of widebodies, the highly infected dispute between Qatar Airways and Airbus over the paint quality control issues of the airline’s A350s is set to take yet another turn in the new year. Technical experts will inspect aircraft in Doha in January, and British High Court Justice Waksman will travel to both Doha and Toulouse to look at the planes. A summit is scheduled for January 11 in Doha between the OEM and the Qatar Civil Aviation Authority (QCAA), which we imagine will be a meeting of not insignificant tensions.

The legal battle will most likely continue throughout the best part of the year, and the trial will be split into two parts. The first will take place in June and focus on liability. Meanwhile, a decision on the size of the damage claims will be decided on at a later date. Airbus has admitted to the quality issues but denies this is due to design. Furthermore, it says it has been prevented by the airline from accessing relevant information, among other complaints relating to millions of dollars in “purchase incentives.”

Qatar Airways, meanwhile, claims that Airbus has failed to provide technical information regarding the defect and that regulators at EASA had been influenced by the planemaker regarding the aircraft. The bitter legal proceedings and mutual vitriol are far from over and are set to continue for the remainder of the year and beyond. This is one instance we are not that excited to say, “watch this space.”

A350F livery design reveal and XL-MDCD implementation
In October 2022, Airbus announced a competition where it invited people to submit designs for the livery of its forthcoming cargo widebody, the A350F. The last date for submissions was in November. Meanwhile, the winning design on the 1000m2 (622mi2) state-of-the-art freighter aircraft canvas will be revealed during the Le Bourget Paris Airshow, taking place in June 2023. The winner will also be presented with a model replica during the event.

Furthermore, in the coming year, Airbus will be working on integrating the largest side cargo door for any airliner into its new widebody freighter. This design change follows continuous feedback and dialogue with customers, and the XL Main Deck Cargo Door (XL-MDCD) will now measure 175 inches in width instead of the 146.5 inches on the version initially announced. The manufacturer says it will be able to fit the Trent 7000 engine (which exclusively powers the A330neo) in one go. simpleflying.com