Why Your Flight Gets Canceled While Others Operate Despite Weather
Ever had a flight canceled due to bad weather, only to see other flights to the same destination still running? It’s a frustrating experience for many travelers, who often hear the standard explanation: “It’s just the weather.” But why do some flights get canceled while others remain unaffected? The answer lies in a complex set of factors that influence an airline’s decision-making process during disruptions.
According to aviation expert William McGee, weather does not affect all flights at an airport equally, but airlines respond differently. McGee, a former FAA-licensed flight dispatcher, explains that factors like crew scheduling, maintenance, aircraft availability, and even specific airline policies play a role in deciding which flights to cancel. While weather events can affect all airlines at a hub, it’s the airline’s internal processes that determine whether a flight goes ahead or not.
Most airports can continue operations in poor weather, though not at full capacity. When severe weather hits, airlines prioritize safety first, but several other considerations follow. “It’s a collection of moving parts,” says McGee. Decisions on cancellations or delays often stem from logistical issues, such as the availability of aircraft or crew and the potential strain on maintenance schedules.
One key issue that complicates matters is the airline industry’s reliance on a tool known as the “cancellator,” a computer algorithm that helps airlines decide which flights to cancel. This tool uses national weather forecasts and air traffic control advisories to recommend cancellations. However, the final decision is made by airline staff, who also factor in things like flight frequency and the potential impact on passengers. In some cases, airlines will use their “war rooms” to manage major disruptions, especially during snowstorms or other extreme weather events.
In these situations, airlines aim to minimize disruption by reducing the number of canceled flights. For high-frequency routes like Sydney-Melbourne or New York-Boston, where multiple flights run daily, airlines may cancel some services while keeping others operating to accommodate as many passengers as possible. Airlines might also prioritize flights with high-value passengers or those connected to important events like cruises.
The interconnectivity of the airline system means that delays often have a ripple effect. One delayed flight can cause cascading delays, impacting dozens of other flights across the network. The airline’s goal is to reduce the number of cancellations, as these lead to a host of logistical problems, including the costly need to rebook passengers and handle crew “time outs” when staff exceed their maximum working hours.
While cancellations are generally viewed negatively by passengers, airlines are now required to issue refunds for canceled or delayed flights, even when weather is to blame. This is thanks to recent changes in U.S. Department of Transportation regulations. In addition, advancements in AI technology are improving weather forecasting, making it easier for airlines to notify passengers of delays or cancellations in advance, helping to alleviate frustration.
Despite these advancements, however, the unpredictability of weather and the complexity of airline operations means that some passengers will always feel the pain of cancellations, even as other flights continue to operate.
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